10 Things You Need to Know: November 19, 2024
Key data releases this week include: NAHB Housing Market Index (Mon), housing starts (Tue), leading economic indicators (Thu), existing home sales (Thu), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
November 12, 2024
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 93.7 during October after edging higher to 91.5 in September. The index rose 3.3% y/y, and nine of the 10 index components improved last month. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index surged to a record 110 (+44.7% y/y) in October. It stood higher than its recent low of 65 in November 2023.
Haver
November 13, 2024
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% (2.6% y/y) during October, the same as in each of the prior three months. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy rose 0.3% (3.3% y/y) for the third consecutive month, as expected.
Haver
November 14, 2024
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2% (2.4% y/y) during October after rising 0.1% in September. The reading matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The PPI excluding food & energy rose 0.3% (3.1% y/y) after increasing an unrevised 0.2% in September.
Haver
November 15, 2024
Total retail sales increased 0.4% (2.8% y/y) during October after a 0.8% September gain. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y) after rising 1.2% in September, revised from 0.7%.
Capital Economics
November 18, 2024
Donald Trump’s plans to curb immigration and undertake a mass deportation of undocumented migrants could boost labor supply in countries that are the source of migrants. But there could be social and fiscal costs, as well as lower remittances. Immigration is likely to be a key source of tension between the US and Mexico and Central America which could raise the threat of targeted tariffs or sanctions that exacerbate economic costs from protectionist US trade policy.
Barron’s
November 18, 2024
Automating routine administrative tasks could boost U.S. government productivity by $519 billion annually, for $5.2 trillion in savings over 10 years. AI also could reduce the deficit by detecting tax evasion and improving the selection of tax returns for audit. Improved compliance could boost revenue by $4.8 trillion over 10 years without boosting tax rates, according to Macquarie strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry.
Barron’s
November 18, 2024
Oxford Economics estimates that raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 60% could boost the U.S. consumer price index by at most 0.7%, while a blanket 10% tariff could add another 0.3%. Economists expect a trade battle to potentially shave two percentage points off Chinese economic growth—far from ideal for a country already trying to stabilize its growth.
The Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times
November 14, 2024
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the strength of the economy will allow the central bank to take a patient approach as it decides how much to cut interest rates. In addition, Powell said that he expects inflation to continue to moderate, although “on a sometimes-bumpy path.”
Oxford Economics
November 14, 2024
The details from the CPI and PPI reports this week signal that prices rose at a faster pace in October, but the details don’t point to accelerating inflation. Inflation is proving to be a little sticky, but not a big issue. We think the Fed can still cut in December.