10 Things You Need to Know: November 18, 2025
Haver
November 11, 2025
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index eased 0.6% (+4.8%) to 98.2 in October after falling 2.0% to 98.8 in September. Four of the ten index components increased last month while five fell and one was unchanged.
Bloomberg Economics
November 13, 2025
Based on the latest available data from the Department of Labor, initial jobless claims decreased to 226k in the week ended Nov. 8 — low by historical standards. There were approximately 1935k continued claims in the week ended Nov. 1, down from 1956k the week prior.
Bloomberg
November 17, 2025
The European Commission on Monday updated its economic forecasts for the eurozone amid year-to-date outperformance. The region’s real GDP is expected to grow 1.3% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027, versus the previous full-fledged forecast provided in May of 0.9% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. The commission said the consumer price index would “hover around 2%” and reach the European Central Bank’s 2% target in 2027.
China Morning Post, Reuters, WSJ
November 14, 2025
China’s factory output and retail sales have grown at their slowest pace in over a year, highlighting significant economic challenges amid a trade war with the US and weak domestic demand. Industrial output rose by 4.9% year over year, and retail sales increased by 2.9%, both missing forecasts.
The Japan Times, Nikkei Asian Review
November 17, 2025
Japan’s GDP shrank 1.8% in Q3, marking the first contraction in six quarters, driven by weakened domestic demand and slowing exports. The decline was less severe than expected, as economists had predicted a 2.5% drop.
The Economic Times
November 13, 2025
India’s economy is forecast to grow 6.5% annually through 2027, driven by infrastructure spending and strong consumption, according to Moody’s Ratings. However, the ratings agency notes that the private sector is cautious about business capital expenditures.
Barron’s
November 17, 2025
What followed previous capital-expenditure booms was a bust, a new report from BCA Research reminds us. A key component of the peak and turn of those cycles was the increasing reliance on debt to finance those massive expenditures, the respected research firm points out. BCA also says revenue forecasts underestimated how much technology prices would fall.
Barron’s
November 17, 2025
Inside the Fed, the divide continues to grow. Boston Fed President Susan Collins has questioned the need for a third cut. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, voting next year, is also signaling caution. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned there is “limited room” for further easing. And Kansas City’s Jeffrey Schmid, who dissented in October in favor of no cut, said on Friday, “I don’t think we have room to be complacent,” on price increases.
Bloomberg, American Banker
November 12, 2025
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that any changes to the types and sizes of US Treasury securities issued will be implemented gradually to avoid disrupting markets. He reiterated the department’s commitment to providing forward guidance and ensuring predictable, incremental adjustments, particularly for longer-duration securities, in order to maintain market stability and minimize rollover risk.
Capital Economics
November 14, 2025
We expect fourth-quarter GDP (when it is eventually published) to show a meaningful hit – potentially subtracting as much as 1.5%-points from annualized growth – but this should be reversed next quarter as postponed federal spending is made up and federal workers’ restored pay boosts consumption.