10 Things You Need to Know: November 11, 2025
Haver
November 5, 2025
The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls during October increased 42,000 (0.7% y/y) after declining 29,000 in September. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 25,000 increase in October. Wage growth for job-stayers advanced 4.5% y/y, unchanged from September.
Haver
November 5, 2025
The Services PMI rose to 52.4 during October after falling to 50.0 in September. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 50.9 in October. The employment sub-index rose to 48.2, its highest level in five months. The prices index rose to a three-year high of 70.0.
Bloomberg
November 6, 2025
The Chicago Fed estimated that unemployment ticked up by a fraction of a percentage point to 4.36% in October, depicting a labor market that has cooled while avoiding a serious downturn.
AP
November 7, 2025
Consumer sentiment dropped to a three-year low and close to the lowest point ever recorded by the University of Michigan. The November survey showed the index of consumer sentiment at 50.4, down a startling 6.2% from last month and it plunged nearly 30% from a year ago. Economists had expected a slight month-to-month increase for a reading of 54.2.
Barron’s
November 10, 2025
Tariffs haven’t hurt as much as expected. Judging by inventories, companies stocked up during a tariff pause that ran out in August, according to BofA Securities. Those inventories are now probably depleted, so fourth-quarter profit margins could be more telling. A weak dollar can help; each 10% drop can boost earnings by 3%.
Barron’s
November 10, 2025
Earnings growth isn’t just for tech companies anymore, either. The aggregate analyst sales growth expectation for the equal-weighted S&P 500 is 5% for 2026, which should be enough to generate earnings growth of 11%, not far below the 13% for the standard index.
Other Voices, Barron’s
November 10, 2025
The U.S. is entering a period where fiscal policy, not monetary resolve, increasingly determines the inflation path. The Fed can talk tough, but as long as fiscal pressures dominate, its independence will remain conditional and its 2% goal aspirational. The last mile of disinflation may be the hardest, not because the Fed is weary, but because the road itself now bends toward fiscal dominance.
The Wall Street Journal, Politico
November 9, 2025
The Senate has advanced a bill to end the record-long government shutdown, with eight Democrats joining Republicans, but the bill must pass the House, which has been out of session since September. The impasse has centered on health care, particularly the extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies, with a key development being a Republican proposal to direct some health care funding to households via flexible spending accounts.
Politico
November 5, 2025
Supreme Court justices voiced skepticism over President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs, suggesting the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act may not authorize unilateral tax-like measures without congressional approval. While a ruling against the administration could threaten much of Trump’s tariff program, justices debated how to unwind existing levies and whether alternative legal paths remain for future trade actions.
Capital Economics
November 10, 2025
Alternative data suggest the economy continued to perform reasonably well early in the fourth quarter. Fears of a renewed labor market downturn, amid reports of mass layoffs at several large firms, are not reflected in still-muted jobless claims or the pick-up in hiring in the ADP private payrolls report.