10 Things You Need to Know: May 27, 2026
Key data releases this week include: FHFA House Price Index (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), personal income and spending (Thu), PCE Price Index (Thu), durable goods orders (Thu), Q1 GDP revision (Thu), and new home sales (Thu).
FHFA
May 26, 2026
U.S. house prices rose 1.7% between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) House Price Index. House prices for the first quarter of 2026 rose 0.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for March rose 0.1% from February.
Bloomberg
May 19, 2026
Pending sales of previously owned US homes rose for a third straight month in April, indicating firmer underlying demand at the start of the spring selling season. The index of contract signings increased 1.4% to a five-month high of 74.8, according to National Association of Realtors data released Tuesday. The median forecast of economists was for a 1% advance.
Bloomberg
May 22, 2026
The University of Michigan’s final sentiment index for May dropped to 44.8 (vs. 49.8 in April’s final reading). Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up to 4.8% from 4.5% prior. Long-run inflation expectations climbed to 3.9% (from 3.4%), the highest in seven months.
Politico, FT
May 20, 2026
The European Union has agreed to implement a trade deal with the United States that lowers tariffs on industrial goods while capping US duties on most European exports at 15%, aiming to stabilize transatlantic trade despite ongoing political tensions. The agreement includes safeguards allowing the European Commission to suspend the deal if US tariff commitments are not met, alongside a 2029 sunset clause and provisions for review of US steel and aluminum tariffs.
Commerzbank
May 19, 2026
We have revised up China’s real GDP growth outlook to 4.6% for 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected Q1 growth and resilient export demand. This upward revision reflects a front-loaded Q1 that outperformed expectations, alongside the global AI boom that has altered China’s export dynamics. While domestic structural challenges remain deeply entrenched, the velocity of manufacturing and exports has invalidated some of our previous downside risks.
Barron’s
May 25, 2026
If unemployment among workers ages 35 to 44 increases by 1%, the national unemployment rate typically shows an increase of 0.3% four months later. The reverse is also true. The unemployment rate for workers ages 35-44 was 3.1% in April. It’s been trending down for the past three months, which bodes well for the national rate, which is now 4.3%.
WSJ
May 22, 2026
President Donald Trump has advised new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to remain independent despite political pressure, emphasizing the importance of maintaining economic growth without triggering inflation. Warsh faces the challenge of managing rising inflation while convincing other Fed members to keep interest rates low. Warsh was sworn in on Friday.
Bloomberg Economics
May 20, 2026
Minutes of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting show the Fed shifting further in a hawkish direction. Support for eventual cuts narrowed, “many” participants wanted to drop the easing bias from the statement, and a “majority” said further firming would likely be appropriate if inflation stayed persistently above 2%. That reinforces our view that the Fed is in no hurry to adjust interest rates and will remain on hold for some time.
UBS
May 20, 2026
In the US, economic growth remains narrowly based—AI investment and wealth effects are supporting consumption, while activity elsewhere is subdued. Real GDP growth was 2.4% in 2024, eased to 2% in 2025, and is expected to be near 2.1% in 2026. We see one 25 bp rate cut in 2026, in December. Over the next 6 to 9 months, we view rates cuts as much more likely than hikes.