10 Things You Need to Know: May 21, 2024
Key data releases this week include: existing home sales (Wed), FOMC meeting minutes (Wed), new home sales (Thu), durable goods orders (Fri), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
May 14, 2024
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rebounded to 89.7 in April, the first monthly increase since December, from 88.5 in March. Seven of the 10 index components rose, two fell, and one was unchanged. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index increased to 78 in April, the highest level since September.
Haver
May 14, 2024
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5% (2.2% y/y) during April after easing 0.1% in March. A 0.3% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The PPI excluding food and energy strengthened 0.5% (2.4% y/y) after easing 0.1% in March. It was the largest increase in three months. A 0.2% rise had been expected.
Haver
May 15, 2024
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% during April following two consecutive 0.4% increases. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 3.4% y/y rise compared to 3.5% in March. As expected, prices excluding food & energy also rose 0.3% following three consecutive 0.4% monthly increases. It rose 3.6% y/y last month compared to 3.8% in March.
Haver
May 15, 2024
Total retail sales were virtually unchanged m/m (3.0% y/y) in April. A 0.4% m/m April rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, fell 0.3% (+3.5% y/y).
Haver
May 17, 2024
The U.S. Leading Economic Index fell 0.6% (-5.4% y/y) during April following an unrevised 0.3% March decline. A 0.3% April shortfall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Five of ten components contributed negatively to the overall index.
Reuters
May 14, 2024
The euro has been strengthening thanks to an improving macroeconomic backdrop, recovering around 1.7% from its April lows against the dollar to about $1.0708. “We’re starting to see that divergence between economic performance close, offering some help to the euro,” said Fiona Cincotta, market strategist at City Index. “That is also a cause for relief for the ECB and a reason for them to be more relaxed as well. It’s almost as if their ducks have lined up quite nicely so far.”
Capital Economics
May 20, 2024
Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks a large variation in prospects at the country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last year’s fortunes. We expect the EM monetary easing cycle to broaden over the course of the year. Our financial risk indicators suggest that vulnerabilities in the emerging world have eased, though some risks remain in frontier markets.
Other Voices/ Barron’s
May 20, 2024
Looking at the widest possible range of available information, it is probably only a matter of time before we see further slowing in housing inflation and overall inflation returns to the Fed’s 2% target. The April CPI report confirmed further progress: Tenant-occupied rent increased by 0.35% from the month before, marking the slowest pace of increase since August 2021, right before we entered the period of supercharged rent growth.
Oxford Economics
May 15,2024
The April consumer price index is a small step in the right direction, but it doesn’t warrant any change to our forecast for the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve to occur in September followed by another in December.