10 Things You Need to Know: March 5, 2024
Key data releases this week include: factory orders (Tue), ISM Services (Tue), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Wed), Beige Book (Wed), Powell semiannual testimony to congress (Wed, Thu), consumer credit (Thu), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
February 27, 2024
U.S. house prices edged up 0.1% m/m in December after rises of 0.4% in November, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. The December m/m reading was the smallest of 11 consecutive monthly increases. The year-on-year rate of increase eased to 6.6% in December from 6.7% in November. In 2023, house prices rose 5.0% after having gained 13.8% in 2022 and 16.7% in 2021.
Haver
February 29 ,2024
The PCE price index rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y) last month after increasing 0.1% in December. The index excluding food and energy prices strengthened 0.4% last month (2.8% y/y). Goods prices fell 0.2% last month (-0.5% y/y) while services prices rose 0.6% (3.9% y/y).
Haver
March 1, 2024
The Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector fell to 47.8 in February, after rising in January to 49.1, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The index peaked at 64.0 in March 2021. A February reading of 49.2 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The Wall Street Journal
March 4, 2024
The rate of inflation in the eurozone slowed in February, with consumer prices across its 20 economies up by 2.6% from the year before, lower than the 2.8% pace recorded in January. Most economists expected prices to rise by 2.5% year-on-year. Falling food and energy prices have helped lower the rate of inflation, boosting the possibility of rate cuts by the European Central Bank later in the year.
Capital Economics
February 29, 2024
China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property construction likely to continue to decline and exports set to do the same, the recovery will lack momentum. Growth will have dropped below 4% by the end of the year.
Bloomberg
February 29, 2024
India’s economic growth accelerated to more than 8% in the final three months of last year, beating all forecasts by economists just months before an election. Gross domestic product rose 8.4% from a year ago, the Statistics Ministry said, buoyed by strong private- sector investment and a pick-up in services spending. GDP figures for the previous two quarters were revised to above 8% as well.
Market View/Barron’s
March 4, 2024
While so many pundits have been crying about the narrowness of the rally, the NYSE Advance/Decline Line just hit an all-time high. This is absolutely not the kind of action you see if a bull market is peaking or ending. Sorry, bears. The anticipated decline will be one to buy.
Bloomberg
March 3, 2024
Congress has unveiled a $436 billion package expected to keep the government operating until the end of September. It includes around a quarter of funding for government agencies, but does not include funding for social programs, the Defense Department or Homeland Security, all of which are expected to shut down by March 23 if Congress fails to agree on additional funding.
Bloomberg
February 27, 2024
Bond traders have significantly pared back their rate cute expectations. Markets are now broadly in line with the US Federal Reserve’s likeliest outcome. At the start of the year traders were pricing in cuts of over 150 basis points for the year, now it expects a cut of about 75 basis points. Since then, growth data has broadly exceeded expectations, while the downward trend of inflation has shown signs of stalling.