10 Things You Need to Know: March 3, 2026
Key data releases this week include: ISM Manufacturing (Mon), ISM Services (Wed), import prices (Thu), nonfarm productivity (Thu), retail sales (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Bloomberg Economics
March 2, 2026
The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside, falling to 52.4 in February from 52.6 in January. The consensus forecast was 51.5, while we expected a reading of 51.2. The new orders sub-index fell to 55.8 from 57.1 in January. The prices-paid gauge rose to 70.5 – the highest level since June 2022.
U.S. Census Bureau
February 23, 2026
U.S. factory orders decreased by 0.7% (3.7% y/y) to $617.5 billion in December 2025, following a revised 2.7% increase in November. This decline was largely driven by a 24.8% drop in volatile commercial aircraft bookings. Orders for durable goods fell 1.4% to $319.9 billion, largely due to a 5.4% drop in transportation equipment. Core capital goods orders rose 0.6%.
Haver
February 24, 2026
U.S. house prices edged up 0.1% m/m (+1.8% y/y) in December after increases of 0.7% in November, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. December marked the fourth m/m increase in five months.
Bloomberg
February 27, 2026
The producer price index increased 0.5% (2.9% y/y), the most since September, after a revised 0.4% increase in December, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed. The PPI excluding food and energy rose 0.8% (3.6% y/y).
WSJ
February 26, 2026
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says that the trade environment “remains challenging owing to higher tariffs, a stronger euro and a persistently volatile global policy environment.” Speaking to the European Parliament, Lagarde acknowledged that the eurozone economy grew more rapidly than expected last year, but she expects exporters to continue to face obstacles and uncertainty in the future.
Capital Economics
February 27, 2026
China’s economy expanded by just 3.1% in 2025. We expect growth to remain subdued this year too. While the recent change in US tariffs has improved the export outlook for China, we’re expecting less fiscal loosening this year. And, with overcapacity still entrenched, deflationary pressures appear set to persist.
Barron’s
March 2, 2026
What worries Mizuho Americas Chief Economist Steven Ricchiuto is that the big banks have become lenders to the so-called shadow banks. His other worry is that inflation is accelerating, not slowing as touted. With the benchmark 10-year Treasury under 4% that leaves little real return, with the personal consumption deflator, the Federal Reserve’s main inflation gauge, running at a 2.9% year-over-year rate.
Bloomberg
March 2, 2026
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said, depending on how long the Iran conflict affects the oil market, there will be both a hit to US economic growth and an increase in inflationary pressures, complicating the job for the Fed. “I think the recent Iran situation puts the Fed even more on hold, more reluctant to cut rates than they were before this happened,” Yellen said.
Bloomberg, WSJ
February 23, 2026
The Trump administration is weighing the introduction of new national security tariffs on industries including large-scale batteries, cast iron, plastic piping, and industrial chemicals. The measures would be implemented under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and would be issued separately from the new global tariffs that have already gone into effect.