10 Things You Need to Know: March 24, 2026
Key data releases this week include: construction spending (Mon), nonfarm productivity (Tue), import prices (Wed), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
March 16, 2026
Industrial production rose 0.2% m/m in February following an unrevised 0.7% monthly jump in January. The Action Economics Survey looked for a 0.1% monthly gain. The y/y rate slowed to 1.4% in February from 2.3% in January. Manufacturing output increased 0.2% y/y (1.3% y/y) in February.
Bloomberg
March 18, 2026
Headline PPI rose 0.7% in February (vs. 0.5% prior), above consensus expectations. Core PPI prices grew at a 0.5% rate (vs. 0.8%), also above expectations. Year-over-year headline inflation increased to 3.4% (vs. 2.9% in January) and 3.9% (vs. 3.5%).
Bloomberg Economics
March 19, 2026
The ECB left its three policy rates unchanged with the deposit rate at 2.00%. The message in the monetary policy decisions statement is that the monetary authorities are in no rush to change borrowing costs. The recent volatility in financial markets and the uncertainty about the war argue for a cautious approach. We expect the ECB’s pause to extend through the remainder of the year, in contrast to financial markets, which are pricing in two 25-basis-point hikes.
Bloomberg Economics
March 18, 2026
We estimate that to bring supply in line with underlying residential demand, property construction needs to fall about 55% to 700 million square meters from a peak of 1,565 million square meters in 2021. The 40% drop in property investment since then suggests the adjustment is roughly 70% done. We expect the remaining 30% to be finished within two years, pointing to stabilization by 2027.
Barron’s
March 23, 2026
The war’s impact on some other commodities besides oil is starting to cause serious problems. Urea, a crucial fertilizer, and helium, which is needed to make microchips, are in short supply due to the war. Aluminum was already in a supply deficit before the war and is now getting scarcer and more expensive as output from the Middle East is curtailed.
Barron’s
March 23, 2026
Recent years have been the only time in the last 150 years when an investor has experienced more pain in a 60/40 portfolio than in 100% stocks. Stocks and bonds both plunged in 2022 when the Fed hiked interest rates to tame inflation, but while the stock market recovered its previous high in September 2024, the 60/40 portfolio didn’t hit its previous high until June 2025. Some experts now advocate tweaking the 60/40 mix to 50% stock, 30% bonds, and 20% alternatives.
Bloomberg
March 18, 2026
The FOMC left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, with one dissent from Governor Stephen Miran in favor of a cut. The median forecast for 2026 GDP growth was revised up to 2.4% (vs. 2.3% in December’s SEP). the median participant sharply marked up this year’s headline PCE inflation forecast to 2.7%, from 2.4% in the previous SEP. Core PCE inflation was revised up to 2.7% (vs. 2.5%). The median projection for the 2026 unemployment rate remained at 4.4%.
Bloomberg
March 17, 2026
A US attorney’s pledge to appeal a judge’s decision boosts the risk that Kevin Warsh won’t be confirmed as Fed chair before Jerome Powell’s term expires May 15. The Federal Reserve Act (FRA) provides that in the absence of the chair; the vice chair will preside at board meetings. One plausible outcome is that Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will preside at board meetings after May 15 until Warsh is confirmed.
DJ
March 18, 2026
Social Security’s trust fund supporting seniors is expected to run short of money in a few short years, resulting in benefit cuts of 22.5% in 2033, according to the Trustees report released in June. New projections from the Congressional Budget Office advance that to 2032. There’s little doubt that the numbers will once again worsen when the Trustees’ projections are refreshed in a few months. The bailout is not going to happen.