10 Things You Need to Know: March 19, 2024
Key data releases this week include: NAHB Housing Market Index (Mon), housing starts (Tue), FOMC rate decision (Wed), leading economic indicators (Fri), and existing home sales (Fri).
Haver
March 12, 2024
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 89.4 in February from 89.9 in January, registering the sixth monthly fall in seven months. The index has been below the 50-year average of 98 for 26 straight months. Two of the 10 index components rose, seven fell, and one was unchanged.
Haver
March 12, 2024
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% during February following a 0.3% January gain. The rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Survey. The 3.2% y/y rise remained below the peak 9.1% y/y increase in June of 2022. Prices excluding food & energy rose 0.4% (3.8% y/y). A 0.3% increase had been expected.
Haver
March 14, 2024
Retail sales rose 0.6% (1.5% y/y) during February after falling 1.1% in January. A 0.8% February increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants, were unchanged (+2.2% y/y) last month after falling 0.3% in January.
Haver
March 14, 2024
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6% m/m (1.6% y/y) in February following a 0.3% m/m (1.0% y/y) increase in January. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The core measure increased 0.4% m/m (2.8% y/y), also significantly above expectations of 0.2% m/m.
Reuters
March 17, 2024
The European Central Bank could start lowering rates in June, ECB member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said, following a decrease in eurozone inflation. “If our macroeconomic forecasts are met in the coming months, it is normal that we will start cutting rates soon and June could be a good date to start,” De Cos said.
The Wall Street Journal
March 11, 2024
India has emerged as the epicenter of a speculative trading boom, accounting for 78% of the world’s equity options contracts in 2023, according to Futures Industry Association data. This surge in trading activity, largely fueled by mobile technology and the appeal of quick gains, has benefited brokerages and exchanges but left many individual investors facing significant losses, sparking calls for increased regulatory measures to protect these traders.
Barron’s
March 18, 2024
In a report released this week, the EAI says the U.S. is now producing 13.3 million barrels a day, more than double the output from a decade ago. And this: “The United States produced more crude oil than any nation at any time…for the past six years in a row.”
Capital Economics
March 15, 2024
Data dependence will remain the order of the day at (this) week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed officials likely to leave their interest rate projections broadly unchanged and signal that they are still looking for “greater confidence” that inflation will be sustained at 2% before they begin loosening policy. We continue to expect the first rate cut in June, although that will probably rely on better news on inflation over the next few months.
Reuters
March 12, 2024
An inverted yield curve is no longer a good measure of a recession, nearly two-thirds of strategists have said. The yield curve has remained inverted for over 20 months, but there are no signs of a recession. Zhiwei Ren, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual, said: “If you have insatiable demand for the long-end from real money like pension funds and the Fed keeping front-end rates higher because of the resilience of the economy – the curve will stay inverted for a while.”