10 Things You Need to Know: March 18, 2025
Key data releases this week include: retail sales (Mon), NAHB Housing Market Index (Mon), housing starts (Tue), industrial production (Tue), FOMC rate decision (Wed), existing home sales (Thu), and leading economic indicators (Thu).
Haver
March 17, 2025
Total retail sales increased 0.2% (3.1% y/y) during February after falling 1.2% in January and rising 0.7% in December, according to the U.S Census Bureau. Expectations were for a 0.6% February gain in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & food services, rose 1.0% last month (4.4% y/y).
Haver
March 11, 2025
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 100.7 in February, the lowest level since October. Seven of the 10 index components fell and three increased. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index rose to 104 in February on top of a 14-point jump to 100 in January, registering the second highest reading on record.
Haver
March 12, 2025
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% (2.8% y/y) in February after rising 0.5% in January. A 0.3% rise in February had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy rose 0.2% (3.1% y/y) following an increase of 0.4% in January. A 0.3% rise had been expected.
Haver
March 13, 2025
The Producer Price Index for final demand held steady (+3.2% y/y) during February after increasing 0.6% in January. A 0.2% rise was expected according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Producer prices excluding food, energy & trade services rose 0.2% (3.3% y/y) last month after a 0.3% January increase. A 0.3% increase was expected.
Capital Economics
March 14, 2025
India’s economy appears to have bottomed out and, with the help of policy stimulus, growth should pick up further over the coming quarters. But there are risks to this view – notably a renewed surge in food inflation and a flare-up of problems in the banking sector. The direct impact of a punitive tariff from the U.S. would be small, but the indirect impact through a loss of business confidence would be larger.
Barron’s
March 17, 2025
The U.S. market has returned 9.7% annualized since 1900, thrashing bonds at 4.6%, Treasury bills at 3.4%, and inflation at 2.9%. Since 1926, a dollar invested in value stocks has turned into $131,534, versus $11,744 for growth stocks. The S&P 500 Growth index has shot ahead of S&P 500 Value since the early 1990s.
Barron’s
March 17, 2025
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could raise core personal- consumption-expenditure inflation by one percentage point and cut growth by a half to one percentage point, J.P. Morgan estimates. Additional tariffs imposed on March 12 on steel and aluminum will add more costs to the economy, as will plans to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2.
Barron’s
March 17, 2025
“Markets are ignoring the broader macroeconomic picture of an underlying healthy economy,” writes Steven Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist of Mizuho Americas. “Solid balance sheets, excess liquidity, accommodative financial markets, and lower rates along the curve in the past four weeks, all add to our above-trend 2025 growth call.”
Financial Times, CNBC
March 16, 2025, March 14, 2025
Observers expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged this week, but investors and analysts will be looking for signs of reassurance that the central bank is ready to act if necessary. “Powell needs to give some sort of a signal that they’re watching it,” said Dominic Konstam of Mizuho Securities USA.