10 Things You Need to Know: March 17, 2026
Key data releases this week include: industrial production (Mon), NAHB Housing market Index (Mon), pending home sales (Tue), PPI (Wed), factory orders (Wed), FOMC rate decision (Wed), leading economics indicators (Thu), and new home sales (Fri).
Haver
March 12, 2026
Existing home sales rose 1.7% m/m (-1.4% y/y) to 4.09 million units (SAAR) in February, the second monthly rise in three months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected February sales of 3.90 million units. The median price of all existing homes (NSA) rose 0.8% (0.3% y/y) to $398,000 in February. Meanwhile, housing starts rose 7.2% (+9.5% y/y) to 1.487 million units in January, and building permits fell 5.4% (-5.8% y/y) to 1.376 million.
Haver
March 11, 2026
The consumer price index rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y) in February, a touch above the average in the prior six months. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2% (2.5% y/y). Outside of apparel and airfares, the core CPI was well behaved, with most areas showing modest changes.
Bloomberg
March 13, 2026
Monthly headline PCE inflation ticked down to 0.28% (2.8% y/y) in January, from 0.36% in December. The core PCE deflator was unchanged at 0.36% (3.1% y/y) in January. At the same time, personal income increased a modest 0.4% in January, a small improvement from December’s 0.3% gain. Real personal spending rose 0.1% in January, matching December’s pace.
Haver
March 13, 2026
Real GDP grew 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, revised down from the initial estimate of 1.4%. The pace was among the slowest of the past few years as the government shutdown acted as a notable constraint on economic growth. Consumer spending made the largest contribution to the downward revision with growth slowing from 2.4% to 2.0%. Federal spending fell 16.7% in Q4, which subtracted 1.2 percentage points from the advance in GDP.
Haver
March 13, 2026
Total job openings increased 6.0% m/m (-6.5% y/y) to 6.946 million in January from 6.550 million in December. Gains were widespread across major industries. The number of unemployed continued to exceed the number of openings for the sixth consecutive month.
Barron’s
March 16, 2026
While a recession isn’t imminent, the economy now appears weaker than it did just a month ago, and there is no clear fix in sight. Americans are spending more on healthcare and housing, and pulling back on clothing, cars, and just about everything else. Real spending, adjusted for inflation, rose just 0.1% in January.
CNBC
March 12, 2026
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting as the Iran conflict drives oil prices higher and clouds the inflation outlook. Policymakers are likely to wait for clearer signals on inflation and the labor market before considering any rate cuts.
Bloomberg
March 12, 2026
The Trump administration’s new trade probe into 16 US trading partners is likely to lay the groundwork for duties that could permanently replace the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court on February 20th. If Section 301 tariffs are eventually imposed, they would likely persist through Trump’s second term.
Bloomberg
March 11, 2026
Private equity investors would have been better off parking their money in the public markets over the last five years. The asset class has underperformed major public benchmarks over the last one, three and five years, with or without the Mag 7 included, according to the 2026 Market Overview from private capital manager Hamilton Lane.