10 Things You Need to Know: March 12, 2024
Key data releases this week include: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), CPI (Tue), retail sales (Thu), PPI (Thu), industrial production (Fri), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
March 8, 2024
Nonfarm payrolls increased 275,000 (1.8% y/y) in February following a 229,000 January increase and a 290,000 rise in December. Expectations had been for a 195,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Average hourly earnings edged 0.1% higher last month after rising 0.5% in January. The 4.3% y/y earnings increase remains below the 5.9% peak in March 2022. The unemployment rate moved up to 3.9%.
Haver
March 5, 2024
Total factory orders fell 3.6% m/m (-2.0% y/y) in January after a 0.3% decline in December and a 2.6% rise in November, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 2.8% m/m January drop. Durable goods orders dropped 6.2% (-0.7% y/y) in January after a 0.3% decline in December.
Bloomberg
March 6, 2024
The US economy has expanded at a modest pace since earlier in the year, while consumers showed more sensitivity to rising prices, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. “Consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks,” the report showed.
Capital Economics
March 8, 2024
Christine Lagarde’s comments following the ECB meeting and the Q4 wage data released recently support our view that the ECB will start cutting rates in June. Meanwhile, news that EU births fell to a new record low is a reminder that demographics will be a significant drag on economic growth in the euro-zone in the coming years.
Bloomberg
March 7, 2024
Japanese bank stocks and the yen were buoyed by strong wage data and comments from the central bank indicating negative interest rates could end this month. Wage growth accelerated at its fastest pace since June, data showed, and several government officials reportedly support a rate increase in the near term. Average wage hike demand increased to 5.85%, the highest level in over 30 years. The news boosted the yen 0.9% to a one-month high.
Capital Economics
March 11, 2024
EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs with rapid population growth, the potential to develop manufacturing hubs (including through friendshoring), or that stand to benefit from the green transition will rise in global GDP rankings.
Barron’s
As investors and speculators abandoned gold, central banks have been active buyers. They added 1,037 tons in 2023, just shy of the previous year’s 1,082 million purchases. China continues to be an active buyer, holding 2,245 tons at the end of 2023.
Capital Economics
March 8, 2024
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little support for the idea of a renewed upturn in inflation, we still expect the Fed to begin cutting interest rates soon, most likely in June.
Financial Times
March 6, 2024
Economists expect US GDP to grow by 2% in 2024, twice the figure predicted at the end of last year. Forecasts have been upgraded thanks to strong growth in the final quarter of last year as well as a resilient labor market. Economists are expecting the US Federal Reserve to cut rates from June or July, with three to four quarter point cuts in total by the end of 2024.