10 Things You Need to Know: March 10, 2026
Key data releases this week include: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), existing home sales (Tue), CPI (Wed), trade balance (Thu), housing starts (Thu), personal income and spending (Fri), PCE Price Index (Fri), durable goods orders (Fri), Q4 GDP revision (Fri), consumer sentiment (Fri), and JOLTS Jobs openings (Fri).
Haver
March 4, 2026
The ISM Services Index rose 2.3 index points in February to 56.1, signaling solid expansion in the service sectors of the economy. It was the firmest reading since mid-2022. The increase in the index was broadly based, as three of the four components contributed positively, and all were above 50. The prices index, which is not a component of the headline index, fell 3.6 points to 63.0.
Haver
March 6, 2026
Total retail sales fell 0.2% (+3.2% y/y) in January after no change in December. A 0.2% m/m January decline was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.3% (4.9% y/y) in January, the third m/m rise in four months.
Haver, CNBC
March 6, 2026
Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 92,000 in February with downward revisions to December and January. The Action Economics Survey expected payrolls to increase by 63,000. Over the past three months, nonfarm payrolls have averaged a 6,000 monthly increase. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4% as jobs declined across key areas.
WSJ
March 6, 2026
Eurozone economic growth for the fourth quarter was revised downward to 0.2%, from 0.3%, mainly because of a larger-than-expected contraction in Ireland. Private consumption, government spending and investment remained strong, but trade was a drag amid US tariffs.
Financial Times, WSJ
March 4, 2026
China has set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5% to 5%, the lowest in decades, while maintaining a higher fiscal deficit. Premier Li Qiang noted challenges such as a sluggish global economy and a domestic property market downturn. Defense spending will rise 7%, and the government aims to boost consumer spending. The language on Taiwan is tougher, but the tone toward the US is more moderate ahead of President Trump’s visit.
Barron’s
March 9, 2026
Deutsche Bank notes that historically, when oil shocks prompted U.S. stock market drops of more than 15%, they tended to come with at least one of three circumstances: a 50% to 100% oil price spike, sustained over several months; a slow-moving economy tipping into or close to recession; or a sharp, hawkish pivot from the Fed to fight inflation. None of these looks likely for now.
Other Voices/ Barron’s
March 9, 2026
China is securing heavily discounted crude from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela outside conventional oil trading channels and paying for that oil in renminbi. Avoiding the petrodollar system simultaneously reduces China’s dollar dependency and lowers its energy costs—a double advantage that has quietly strengthened Beijing’s hand. Remove Iran and Venezuela from China’s orbit, and that infrastructure is seriously undermined.
CNBC
March 5, 2026
President Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, is expected to still favor cutting interest rates even as the Iran war pushes oil prices higher and raises inflation concerns. Warsh has argued that inflation is driven primarily by fiscal policy and the money supply rather than by energy shocks, suggesting he may pursue lower rates once confirmed, despite rising oil prices.
CNBC, The New York Times
March 4, 2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump’s global tariff will increase from 10% to 15%. This change follows a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated Trump’s previous unilateral tariff hikes. Bessent predicts that the tariffs will revert to their former levels by August, as the current tariffs, imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, can only last 150 days without Congressional approval.