10 Things You Need to Know: June 4, 2024

Key data releases this week include: ISM Manufacturing (Mon), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Tue), factory orders (Tue), ISM Services (Wed), consumer credit (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).


June 3, 2024

US factory activity shrank in May at a faster pace as output came close to stagnating and a measure of orders fell by the most in nearly two years. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge fell 0.5 point to 48.7, the weakest in three months, data out. The figure was softer than the 49.5 median estimate in a survey of economists.


May 28, 2024

U.S. house prices ticked up 0.1% m/m in March following a 1.2% rise in February (unrevised) and a 0.1% easing in January (unrevised), according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. The latest reading was the 18th m/m gain in 19 months. The year-on-year rate of increase eased to 6.7% in March after accelerating to 7.1% in February; it was up from 3.8% in March 2023 but well below a high of 18.9% in February 2022.


May 30, 2024

Real GDP grew 1.3% (SAAR) in Q1’24 in the second estimate, revised from 1.6% in the advance estimate. It follows a 3.4% gain in Q4’23 and a 4.9% Q3’23 rise. A 1.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Personal consumption expenditures rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y), revised from 2.5% after a 3.3% increase in Q4.


May 30,2024

 The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors declined 7.7% (-7.4% y/y) during April after rising 3.6% in March, revised from 3.4% and 1.6% in February. These changes followed a 4.7% January decline. Sales were 43.5% below the peak in August 2020, and the lowest since April 2020. The index reflects sales contract signings.


May 31,2024

The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y) in April, the same as it did in March and February. The price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y).

Reuters, Bloomberg

June 3, 2024, June 1,2024

The European Central Bank is widely expected to reduce rates by a quarter point when it meets on Thursday, placing Europe and the US on different policy paths. ECB policymakers have stressed that they are comfortable cutting rates ahead of the Federal Reserve, despite risks the euro could fall against the dollar and stoke inflation.


June 3, 2024

Jim Paulsen, former chief investment strategist for Leuthold Group and Wells Capital Management, doesn’t see bond yields starting on a long-term ascent but settling into a range, as was the case in the 1950s. Moreover, 10-year Treasury notes also offer value, yielding more than equity-income alternatives such as the MSCI U.S. High Dividend Index, he adds.


May 29,2024

The “explosive” price pressure experienced throughout the pandemic will level out during the next year, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic says. “My outlook is that if things go according to what I expect, I’m looking at the end of the year, the fourth quarter, as the time where we might actually think about and be prepared to reduce rates,” he said.

Oxford Economics

May 31, 2024

With four more inflation reports to go between now and the September FOMC meeting, we still think there is a good chance the Fed will cut rates at that meeting.