10 Things You Need to Know: June 30, 2026
Key data releases this week include: JOLTS Jobs Openings (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), ISM Manufacturing (Wed), construction spending (Wed), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
June 24, 2026
New single-family home sales unexpectedly fell 7.3% m/m (-6.8% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 units in May following a 5.7% decline to 626,000 in April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected May sales of 640,000. May marked the lowest level since January, down 23.4% from a high of 757,000 in November 2025.
Bloomberg
June 26, 2026
The PCE deflator increased 0.45% in May (vs. 0.41% prior), boosting the year-on-year inflation pace to 4.1% from 3.8%. The monthly pace of core inflation jumped to 0.32% (from 0.25%). The year-on-year pace rose to 3.4% from 3.3% in April.
Bloomberg
June 28, 2026
Headline real GDP growth for 1Q was revised up to 2.1%, from 1.6% in the second estimate, driven by an improvement in international trade. Meanwhile, real consumer spending was revised down to 0.5%, from 1.4%. Looking at the details, the $36 billion downward revision to spending was heavily concentrated in two idiosyncratic categories — investment advice and foreign travel. For both categories, there were non-economic explanations that aren’t likely to persist.
Bloomberg
June 25, 2026
Economists have adjusted their expectations for European Central Bank interest-rate hikes after a sharp drop in oil prices driven by Middle East peace talks. Oxford Economics and Capital Economics now anticipate no further increases after this month’s initial move. ECB President Christine Lagarde says the bank is prepared to adjust its stance as needed.
Bloomberg Economics
June 29, 2026
The People’s Bank of China appeared to signal that it wants borrowing costs to fall by setting the rate on its new overnight reverse repo 10 basis points lower than markets had expected. For now, a wider US-China bond yield spread is probably holding the PBOC back from lowering the seven-day rate. But we see it cutting that key rate by 10 bps to 1.30% in the second half of 2026.
Jim Paulsen/ Barron’s
June 29, 2026
“The yield curve began rolling over in April 2025 and has been flattening again since year-end. With about a one-year lag, this suggests investors should anticipate slower EPS growth beginning now and a much more noticeable decline in the pace of EPS growth as the year progresses. Other economic policies have also turned more restrictive recently, including a smaller federal deficit-to-GDP ratio, slower real money supply growth, a stronger U.S. dollar, and higher bond yields.”
Other Voices/ Barron’s
June 29, 2026
Data from the past couple of years suggest we may be in the early stages of a significant ramp-up in productivity growth, driven by a capital spending boom. There are parallels here to the late 1990s, when tech innovation and investment resulted in productivity increases routinely north of 2.5%. That is important to investors because, historically, vibrant increases in productivity align with robust stock market returns.
FT
June 26, 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish inflation message has helped lower long-term market expectations for price growth, reassuring investors that he will resist pressure to cut rates too quickly. Ten-year breakevens have fallen to their lowest level in more than a year, helped by lower oil prices and Warsh’s pledge to keep policy focused on persistent inflation.
Bloomberg
June 29, 2026
The US Supreme Court ruled that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook can stay in her job for now, reinforcing the central bank’s independence from the White House and dealing a setback to President Donald Trump. In a separate ruling, the court expanded the president’s power to fire top government officials at other federal agencies.