10 Things You Need to Know: June 23, 2026
Key data releases this week include: new home sales (Wed), personal income and spending (Thu), PCE Price Index (Thu), Q1 GDP revision (Thu), durable goods orders (Thu), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
June 15, 2026
Industrial production increased by a less-than-expected 0.1% (1.7% y/y) in May from a month earlier. A 0.3% m/m May increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Manufacturing production was essentially unchanged m/m (+1.4% y/y) in May.
Haver
June 15, 2026
Housing starts plunged 15.4% m/m (-8.7% y/y) in May on top of a downwardly revised 8.5% monthly decline in April. The level of starts plummeted to 1.177 million, the lowest since May 2020 when the economy was locked down during the COVID pandemic. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 2.4% m/m decline.
Haver
June 17, 2026
Total retail sales rose 0.9% m/m (6.9% y/y) in May following a 0.4% monthly gain in April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.5% m/m gain. The control group of sales (total sales excluding food services, autos, gasoline and building materials) posted another solid increase in May, rising 0.7% m/m (6.3% y/y).
Bloomberg
June 17, 2026
Pending sales of US existing homes had their strongest gain in nearly two years in May. Contract signings rose 3.8% (2.1% y/y). Economists expected a rise of 0.9%. The gain marks the fourth straight monthly increase, adding to signs of improvement in the housing market.
Bloomberg
June 22, 2026
The European Central Bank doesn’t need to react more forcefully to the fallout from the Middle East conflict because inflation is set to return to target over the medium term, President Christine Lagarde said. Markets expect at least one more quarter-point increase this year in the deposit rate, to 2.5%. Traders pared wagers after Lagarde spoke, with 33 basis points priced by year-end compared with 37 points before.
WSJ, FT
June 17, 2026
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, but updated forecasts showed policymakers growing more concerned about inflation. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first policy meeting to overhaul central bank communications, stripping forward guidance from the statement and declining to submit his own rate projection. He pledged to bring inflation back to target but avoided saying whether that would require rate hikes.
FT, Reuters
June 17, 2026
Investors are rebuilding bullish dollar positions as resilient US growth, AI-driven market strength and sticky inflation reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep rates high. Strong-dollar wagers in futures rose by the most since 2018, with traders betting the US economy can outperform peers even as the Iran truce eases some energy-price pressure.
Bloomberg
June 16, 2026
The default rate among private-credit borrowers has reached the highest in the roughly three-year history of an index from Kroll Bond Rating Agency, adding to signs of stress in the $1.8 trillion industry. The trailing 12-month default rate in the KBRA DLD Direct Lending Index rose to 2.3% of issuers. The firm expects the rate to keep rising, ending 2026 at 3.5%, or roughly 111 issuers.
Bloomberg
June 16, 2026
A World Gold Council survey indicates that nearly half of central banks plan to increase gold reserves, the highest proportion since the survey began in 2018. Among 74 central banks, 45% plan to increase gold holdings, while only one plans to reduce them.