10 Things You Need to Know: June 2, 2026
Key data releases this week include: ISM Manufacturing (Mon), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Tue), ISM Services (Wed), Beige Book (Wed), factory orders (Wed), consumer credit (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
May 28, 2026
Personal income showed no change in April, but the softness reflected random volatility in farm income (a decline of 54.8% from an elevated level in March). Excluding the farm component, personal income rose 0.2% in April. Personal consumption rose 0.5%, or 0.1% in real terms. The personal saving rate was 2.6%.
Haver
May 28, 2026
The PCE Price Index rose 0.4% (3.8% y/y) in April, marking the third consecutive month of rapid inflation. The core price index rose 0.2% (3.3% y/y) in April.
Haver
May 28, 2026
Q1 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down to 1.6% SAAR from 2.0% in the advance estimate. There was little revision to the major expenditure components with almost all the total downward revision due to a larger decline in inventories than previously estimated. Domestic demand growth was revised down a tick but was still a solid, above-trend 2.4%.
Haver
May 28, 2026
New single-family home sales fell 6.2% m/m (-11.3% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622,000 units in April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected April sales of 665,000. April marked the first m/m fall in three months. The median sales price of a new home rose 8.0% (2.2% y/y) to $422,500 in April, the first m/m rise in four months.
Bloomberg Economics
May 28, 2026
The account of the European Central Bank’s meeting on April 29-30 suggests that a 25-basis-point interest-rate increase at the Governing Council’s meeting in June is nearly a done deal. It also points to considerable support for a follow-up move in the second half of the year, most likely in September. All in all, the minutes indicate the hawks have the upper hand.
Barron’s
June 1, 2026
The S&P 500 is now up 11-fold from the 2008-09 financial crisis and has nearly doubled since 2023. Hedge funds’ short positions are at a 10-year high, which means the shorts are either spot on, or the market is set up for a serious short squeeze, which would send stocks even higher.
Bloomberg
May 27, 2026
Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair, is expected to push early changes to how the central bank communicates, potentially scaling back forward guidance while building support for broader policy reforms. Analysts say he may emphasize a more forward-looking approach, arguing that AI-driven productivity gains could reshape growth and inflation dynamics.
Bloomberg
June 1, 2026
The build-out for AI will be inflationary in the early going, preventing Fed Chair Kevin Warsh from cutting interest rates as quickly as he has suggested should be possible, according to economist Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management. “We’ll probably have to wait a little while for that because initially the AI boom will certainly be inflationary. The risk of price pressure is “very clear when you look at semiconductor prices, when you look at energy prices, when you look at labor.”
Reuters
May 28, 2026
Investors are increasingly positioning for a stronger US dollar as rising oil prices and persistent inflation concerns reinforce expectations of a more hawkish Fed. Higher Treasury yields and the relative resilience of the US economy are widening the dollar’s advantage over major currencies, particularly the euro and yen, amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict.