10 Things You Need to Know: July 8, 2025
Key data releases this week include: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), consumer credit (Tue), and FOMC meeting minutes (Wed).
Haver
July 1, 2025
Job openings jumped 374,000 (-1.7% y/y) in May to 7.769 million, the highest level since last November. The market consensus had expected a slight decline to 7.3 million in May. The number of openings in May was 532,000 higher than the number of people unemployed, an increase from 229,000 in April and 117,000 in March, pointing to a little less softening of labor-market conditions.
Trading Economics
July 3, 2025
The ISM Services PMI rose to 50.8 in June 2025 from 49.9 in May, slightly above forecasts of 50.5. Meanwhile, price pressure eased a bit (67.5 vs 68.7). However, price increases impacting costs of operations were mentioned more frequently this month.
Haver
July 3, 2025
Nonfarm payrolls increased 147,000 (1.1% y/y) during June after rising 144,000 in May. Expectations had been for a 113,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, fell m/m to 4.1%. It compared to 4.2% in May. A rise to 4.3% was expected.
Bloomberg
July 7, 2025
The European Union said it’s closing in on a framework trade agreement with the US after the head of the bloc’s executive arm, Ursula von der Leyen, held a call with President Donald Trump on Sunday. “They had a good exchange,” EU Spokesman Olof Gill told reporters in Brussels Monday. “We’re at the beginning of the end game, at least for an agreement in principle.”
Bloomberg
July 4, 2025
China is planning to offer cash handouts to families as an incentive for couples to have children, according to people familiar with the matter, as years of population decline threaten the world’s No. 2 economy. The government is set to provide 3,600 yuan ($503) a year for each child until they turn three under a nationwide initiative starting from 2025, said the people, asking not to be identified as the details are not public.
Barron’s
July 7, 2025
More than 4,000 ETFs are listed on the New York Stock Exchange—compared with just 2,400 individual stocks. Fund companies launched more than 700 ETFs last year. Some of the money flowing into ETFs has come out of traditional open-end mutual funds, which have lost $1.2 trillion due to outflows in the past two years.
The Associated Press, NBC News
July 4, 2025
President Donald Trump signed a significant legislative package into law during a July Fourth ceremony. The package extends most 2017 Trump-era tax cuts, gives older Americans a new $6,000 deduction and raises the state and local tax deduction cap to $40,000, while cutting social safety-net spending, particularly Medicaid. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the package will increase budget deficits by $3.4 trillion through 2034.
Capital Economics
July 3, 2025
The budget bill avoids any fiscal tightening by extending the original Trump tax cuts that were due to expire at year-end. However, after factoring in the additional revenues from new tariffs, it appears that the budget deficit will remain close to 6% of GDP for the next few years, suggesting that there is little additional fiscal stimulus.
Bloomberg, Reuters
July 3, 2025
Central bank reserve managers are increasingly concerned about the weaponization of foreign exchange, with 49% citing it as an investment risk, up from 32% last year, according to a UBS survey. This has led to a significant increase in gold purchases, with 52% of central banks planning to add gold in the next year.