10 Things You Need To Know: July 30, 2024
Key data releases this week include: FHFA House Price Index (Tue), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), Employment Cost Index (Wed), pending home sales (Wed), FOMC rate decision (Wed), ISM Manufacturing (Thu), factory orders (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
July 23, 2024
Sales of existing homes weakened 5.4% (-5.4% y/y) during June to 3.89 million units (SAAR) after declining 0.7% during May. Sales remained increased from the low of 3.85 million in October 2023 but were below the September 2005 high of 7.26 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected June sales of 3.99 million units.
Haver
July 25, 2024
Real GDP grew 2.8% (SAAR) in Q2’24 in the second quarter of 2024. The gain followed unrevised increases of 1.4% in Q1’24 and 3.4% in Q4’23. A 1.9% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Real GDP grew 3.1% y/y. The contributions from business inventories and international trade produced offsetting influences on growth last quarter.
Haver
July 26, 2024
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.3% (5.2% y/y) during June following a 0.4% May rise, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Personal income rose 0.2% (4.5% y/y) during June after increasing 0.4% in May. The personal saving rate fell to 3.4%.
Haver
July 26, 2024
The PCE chain price index edged 0.1% higher in June after holding steady in May. The 2.5% y/y rise is a three-year low for the measure and compares to its 7.1% y/y peak in June 2022. The price index excluding food and energy improved 0.2% last month after a 0.1% May gain. The steady 2.6% y/y increase remained below the 5.6% peak in February 2022.
Bloomberg
July 24, 2024
Donald Trump may already be influencing the economic agenda in China, according to Goldman Sachs Group. Officials in Beijing are likely holding fiscal largesse in reserve until they really need it to withstand blowback from a potential Trump presidency. Trump has vowed to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports into the US if elected to the White House in November.
Jeremy Siegel, Wharton School, Barron’s
July 29, 2024
“My prediction now is closer to 5% to 5.5% annual real returns in the next 10 years. That is because the price/earnings ratio of the market probably should be around 20, which is pretty close to where it is today.”
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist for Bannockburn Global Forex, Barron’s
July 29, 2024
“A favorable mix of easy fiscal policy and tight monetary policy has fueled the dollar’s rally in the past few years. That is coming to an end as economic growth slows and price pressures moderate. The cyclical decline in the dollar, however, shouldn’t be confused with a shift in its central role in the world economy.”
The Wall Street Journal
July 28, 2024
Investors aren’t expecting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at its upcoming meeting, but recent promising economic reports could set the stage for a move in September. The jobs report for July, set to be released on Friday, could be a crucial data point.
Oxford Economics
July 26, 2024
The economy is in a transition, but it’s in a good place. It is slowing from very strong growth in the second half of last year. We’re just settling down into something that’s a little more sustainable…The case to cut is already strong, and the Fed will likely use the July meeting to plant a seed that a cut in September is on the table.