10 Things You Need to Know: July 28, 2026
Key data releases this week include: durable goods orders (Mon), FHFA House Price Index (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), FOMC rate decision (Wed), personal income and spending (Thu), PCE Price Index (Thu), Q2 GDP (Thu), Employment Cost Index (Fri), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Bloomberg
July 27, 2026
Durable goods orders increased 0.3% in June. That was below the consensus forecast of 1.8%, as the volatile transportation category weighed on the headline. Core capital goods orders increased 0.9%, beating the consensus forecast of 0.7%.
Bloomberg
July 24, 2026
Purchases of new single-family homes increased 1.6% last month to an annualized rate of 628,000, data released Friday by the federal government showed. Economists predicted a 607,000 rate. The median sales price fell 2.7% from a year earlier to $398,300, marking the fifth month in the last six of year-over- year declines.
Financial Times, Bloomberg
July 23, 2026
The European Central Bank has kept interest rates at 2.25%, although policymakers have debated raising rates amid rising oil prices driven by Middle East conflict. ECB President Christine Lagarde has highlighted the potential inflationary impact of the energy shock, and the central bank has forecast inflation to peak at 3.4% in the second half of the year.
Bloomberg
July 27, 2026
China said the US had committed to cap replacement tariffs on Chinese goods at 20%, staking out a limit on further increases after President Trump imposed a new levy. The Commerce Ministry said that Washington had made it during bilateral trade talks. By pointing out that the current replacement tariff is 12.5%, Beijing appeared to signal that the US has 7.5 percentage points of room for additional increases before reaching the stated ceiling.
Dow Jones
July 23, 2026
A potential shift by Japan’s $1.8 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) could shock global markets. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said recently that the government would pursue measures encouraging GPIF and other state pension funds to invest more in Japanese financial assets, following similar comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. No formal change to GPIF’s target asset allocations has been announced.
Barron’s
July 27, 2026
At the end of last year, Wall Street analysts who ventured guesses on second-quarter earnings predicted 14% growth, on average. This past Thursday growth was pegged at 25%. Evercore ISI, extrapolating the amount by which companies have been beating earnings forecasts, says we could end up with close to 28% growth.
Barron’s
July 27, 2026
If Congress does nothing the retirement trust fund backstopping payments is projected to run dry in 2032. Consequently, current and future Social Security recipients would see automatic benefit cuts. An average 54-year-old couple would lose up to $194,500 in lifetime benefits, while a high-earning couple would lose up to $509,000.
Barron’s
July 27, 2026
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack have expressed support for higher rates, potentially leading to dissents if the Fed opts to hold steady at this week’s meeting. Investors have increased bets on a rate hike, with odds reaching 40% last week. Fed Chairman Warsh has reiterated the commitment to reducing inflation.
FT, Reuters
July 23, 2026, July 24, 2026
The US has imposed new tariffs of at least 10% on 60 countries, including major trading partners such as the UK, Mexico, the EU, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. The tariffs, which range from 10% to 12.5%, are based on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and concern forced labor practices. Countries have criticized the move, calling it “regrettable” and “unjustified.”