10 Things You Need to Know: July 22, 2025
Key data releases this week include: leading economic indicators (Mon), existing home sales (Wed), new home sales (Thu), and durable goods orders (Fri).
Haver
July 15, 2025
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y) in June after rising 0.1% in May. A 0.3% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.2% (2.9% y/y) last month after a 0.1% uptick in May. A 0.3% rise had been expected.
Haver
July 17, 2025
Total retail sales increased 0.6% (3.9% y/y) during June following an unrevised 0.9% May decline. A 0.1% uptick was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline and food services, rose 0.5% (4.0% y/y) in June after gaining 0.2% in May.
Haver
July 18, 2025
Total housing starts increased 4.6% (-0.5% y/y) in June to 1.321 million units (SAAR) after falling a little-revised 9.7% in May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.30 million starts in June. Single-family starts in June fell 4.6% (-10.0% y/y) to 883,000. Multi-family starts rebounded 30.0% in June (26.6% y/y) to 438,000.
FT, Reuters, Politico
July 15, 2025, July 16, 2025, July 15, 2025
President Donald Trump has threatened “very significant” sanctions on Russia if it does not end its invasion of Ukraine, calling them “very biting” and “very powerful.” Trump has engaged in multiple phone calls and summits with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict but has so far seen little progress. Trump says he believes Putin wants peace but that “it’s all talk and no action” so far.
Barron’s
July 21, 2025
Even tariffs, in an odd way, have helped Big Tech. A weaker dollar, spurred by Trump’s trade policies, would lift earnings for companies that do business overseas. For S&P 500 companies, 30% of revenue comes from overseas, and that figure jumps to about 55% for the tech sector. That should result in a two-percentage-point lift to the S&P 500 in the second quarter, providing even more impetus for upside.
Barron’s
July 21, 2025
The S&P 500 typically yielded more than the 10-year Treasury note up until the 1960s. Just 10 years ago, the S&P 500 and 10-year yielded close to 2%, with the index trading for 17 times earnings. Now it yields about three percentage points less than the 10-year yield while trading for 22 times estimated earnings over the next 12 months.
Bloomberg
July 16, 2025
Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, has emerged as a leading contender to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair next year, with Kevin Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also in consideration. Hassett, who has closely aligned with President Donald Trump’s economic policies, has criticized the Fed for not lowering interest rates.
WSJ
July 20, 2025
The US economy is showing signs of recovery after an initial downturn caused by President Donald Trump’s tariffs, with consumer sentiment and retail sales rebounding and the stock market reaching record highs. However, there are still concerns about potential future tariffs and their impact on inflation.
Reuters, Bloomberg
Jul 18, 2025, July 17, 2025
Foreign holdings of US Treasurys surpassed $9 trillion for a third consecutive month in May, driven by significant purchases from countries other than China, according to the Treasury Department. Japan remains the largest foreign holder, with holdings rising to a record $1.135 trillion. The UK increased its holdings to a record $809.4 billion, while China reduced its holdings to $756.3 billion, the lowest since February 2009.