10 Things You Need to Know: July 21, 2026
Key data releases this week include: leading economic indicators (Mon), new home sales (Thu), and durable goods orders (Fri).
Haver
July 14, 2026
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 97.4 in June, the highest level since February. The index was slightly below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the fourth consecutive month. Inflation was cited as the single most important problem facing small businesses.
Bloomberg
July 14, 2026
Headline CPI fell 0.42% in June (vs. +0.47% prior), while the core fell -0.02% (vs. +0.21% prior). On a year-over-year basis, that corresponds to a headline of 3.5% – making May the likely peak for the year – and core at 2.6%. Energy subtracted 45 basis points from June’s headline figure.
Haver
July 15, 2026
The PPI for final demand fell 0.3% m/m (+5.5% y/y) in June following a 0.6% gain in May. Economists expected an unchanged reading in June. The PPI excluding food, energy and trade services edged up 0.1% m/m (+5.1% y/y) in June after having jumped 0.8% m/m in May.
Haver
July 16, 2026
Total retail sales rose 0.2% m/m (6.7% y/y) in June following a 1.0% monthly gain in May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% m/m gain. Sales of the retail control group posted another solid increase in June, rising 0.5% m/m (6.4% y/y) following a 0.8% monthly increase in May.
Haver, Bloomberg
July 17, 2026, July 16, 2026
Housing starts surged 19.0% in June to an annualized pace of 1.427 million. The increase reflected a striking gain of 76.2% in the multi-family sector, but the surge followed a soft month in May. Moreover, single-family construction lost a bit of ground (off 0.2%). Meanwhile, an index of overall market conditions from the National Association of Home Builders fell 2 points to 34 this month. Also, pending home sales fell 5.4% in May, much worse than expected.
Reuters
July 16, 2026
European companies are poised for their strongest earnings season in more than three years, driven by a surge in energy sector profits amid higher crude prices. However, investors are concerned about Europe’s ability to match the US in AI-powered growth, with US companies expected to see earnings growth of 23.7%, compared with 15.3% for European firms.
Barron’s
July 20, 2026
Markets are still pricing in an interest-rate hike this year, but most of the eight voting members of the FOMC who spoke this week signaled they weren’t rushing to raise rates to combat persistent inflation. The count, as of now, among voting members of the FOMC who have weighed in this past week suggests that they will hold rates steady at the July 28-29 policy meeting.
Wall Street Journal
July 17, 2026
The Securities and Exchange Commission asked the public what it thought about its proposal to no longer require public companies to report quarterly financial results. More than 200,000 comments — overwhelmingly negative — rolled in. It is the most feedback the SEC has ever received on a proposal. The SEC is still working to get it all posted on the agency’s website.
Bloomberg
July 15, 2026
Researchers at Stanford University identified signs that traders may be manipulating one of Polymarket’s most popular Bitcoin betting markets by briefly influencing the cryptocurrency’s price used to decide the wagers. The activity was heaviest at times when small, temporary moves in Bitcoin’s price could determine whether a bet paid out. The researchers described the pattern as a “transitory push to manipulate the spot price.”