10 Things You Need to Know: July 16, 2024
Key data releases this week include: retail sales (Tue), NAHB Housing Market Index (Tue), housing starts (Wed), industrial production (Wed), Beige Book (Wed), and leading economic indicators (Thu).
Haver
July 11, 2024
The Consumer Price Index weakened 0.1% during June after holding steady in May. A 0.1% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 3.0% y/y gain compared to 3.3% y/y in May. Prices excluding food & energy edged 0.1% higher last month after rising 0.2% in May. A 0.2% rise had been expected. Core consumer prices rose 3.3% y/y.
Haver
July 12, 2024
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2% (2.6% y/y) during June after holding steady in May. A 0.1% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The PPI excluding food & energy jumped 0.4% (3.0% y/y) after rising 0.3% in May. A 0.2% rise had been expected.
Trading Economics
July 12,2024
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell for a fourth straight month to 66 in July 2024, the lowest since November, from 68.2 in June and well below forecasts of 68.5, preliminary estimates showed. Nearly half of consumers are still concerned about high prices and economic uncertainty persisting as an upcoming election looms.
Capital Economics
July 11, 2024
The ECB is likely to leave the deposit rate on hold at 3.75% next week and refrain from any explicit guidance about the future path of interest rates. The continued strength of wage growth and underlying inflation strengthens the case for the Bank to move cautiously. We still think that it will cut interest rates at the September meeting, but that is not guaranteed.
Capital Economics
July 15, 2024
Weaker-than-expected official GDP figures show that China’s economy lost momentum in Q2. But we doubt this marks the beginning of a renewed downturn just yet – a step up in fiscal stimulus and continued export strength should provide a near-term boost to growth over the coming months.
Barron’s
July 15, 2024
OPEC released its monthly outlook on Wednesday, which concluded oil demand is rising and there’s no sunset in sight. OPEC sees demand growing by 4.1 million barrels a day from 2023 to 2025 and rising through at least 2045. The Paris-based International Energy Agency forecasts a 2029 peak. Forecasters can’t even agree on where demand is today. OPEC says first-quarter oil demand averaged 103.5 million barrels a day; the EIA says 101.7 million barrels.
GQG\ Barron’s
July 15, 2024
“From a macro and bottom-up perspective, we believe India remains the best place to invest outside the U.S. It is a large market, touching $5 trillion, and is still woefully under owned by a vast majority of investors. In our view, the recent election was a nonevent. The reform processes continue. We are ho-hum on China. We don’t find too much that is exciting.”- Rajiv Jain
The Wall Street Journal, CNBC
July 9, 2024, July 9, 2024
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has suggested that the central bank is moving closer to cutting interest rates due to a cooling labor market. He told the Senate Banking Committee: “For a long time, the risks were more that we would fail to hit our inflation target” but now the risk of allowing inflation to fall and allowing the labor market to slow too much “are coming much more into balance… We’re very much aware that we have two-sided risks now.”
Bloomberg
July 10, 2024
The municipal bond market is showing early signs of credit quality pressure as pandemic aid winds down. Revenue growth is slowing, and states such as California are experiencing a decline in tax collections. Rainy day funds are also declining. While sectors such as higher education and health care face challenges, the airport sector and essential services remain robust.