10 Things You Need to Know: July 14, 2026
Key data releases this week include: CPI (Tue), Kevin Warsh testifies before congress (Tue, Wed), PPI (Wed), Beige Book (Wed), retail sales (Thu), housing starts (Fri), industrial production (Fri), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
July 6, 2026
The ISM Services PMI edged down to 54.0 in June, the third m/m decline in four months, following a 0.9-point increase to 54.5 in May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had also expected 54.0 for June. The prices index fell to a still elevated 67.7 in June from 71.3 in May. – Haver (06 Jul.)
Bloomberg Economics
July 7, 2026
Minutes of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting show participants generally saw a higher risk of inflation mounting and lower risk of the labor market cooling. However, global energy prices have fallen since the meeting, and June’s jobs report showed a significant downside surprise in the pace of hiring. With the FOMC clearly divided, we expect the central bank to remain on hold throughout the year.
Haver
July 9, 2026
Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% m/m (+2.8% y/y) to 4.09 million units (SAAR) in June, the first monthly decline since March. Economists expected June sales of 4.20 million units. Sales remained 38.0% below a peak of 6.60 million in January 2021. The median price of all existing homes (NSA) rose 2.2% (1.8% y/y) to $440,600 in June, the fifth consecutive m/m rise.
Bloomberg
July 13, 2026
Economists have reduced their eurozone growth forecast for this year to 0.5% from 0.7%, citing renewed hostilities in the Middle East that have disrupted energy shipments. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates in September, with a rate cut projected for September 2027.
Eurobank
July 8, 2026
Overall, China’s economy is expected to expand by around 4.5%–4.7% in 2026, with growth continuing to be driven by external demand and advanced manufacturing. The sustainability of this growth pattern will depend on whether stronger export performance can gradually translate into firmer domestic consumption and a lasting stabilization of the property sector.
Rajiv Jain, CIO of GQG Partners/ Barron’s
July 13, 2026
“Roughly two-thirds of total token consumption now comes from open-source models, up from a one-third at the start of the year, with much of that growth driven by Chinese models, as enterprises begin rationalizing token spend as frontier model costs continue to rise. If these closed-source model providers don’t have enough revenue growth, they won’t be able to continue to raise money. Capital needs are enormous for this to keep scaling up.”
Barron’s
July 13, 2026
A greed premium is now structurally part of the options market, with the implied volatility of bullish calls exceeding that of bearish puts. Historically, puts were more expensive, as investors buy them to hedge their stock positions. Now few investors hedge because they are afraid of missing out on making money off rising stocks.
Financial Times, The New York Times
July 9, 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh named outside experts, business leaders and former central bankers to five task forces reviewing the central bank’s communications, balance sheet, data, productivity and inflation framework. The panels include Marc Andreessen, Mervyn King, Greg Mankiw and former Walmart CEO Doug McMillon, with findings expected to inform potential Fed policy and operational changes this year.
Mizuho Securities
July 7, 2026
U.S. real GDP growth is forecast at 2.2% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, with nominal GDP growth projected at 5.8% and 4.7% respectively — revised upwards from prior estimates. The PCE deflator is forecast to grow 3.7% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, with core PCE estimated at 3.3% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027 — both revised upward, partly reflecting surging energy prices.