10 Things You Need to Know: January 6, 2026
Reuters
January 5, 2026
The Institute for Supply Management said on Monday its manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.9 in the final month of 2025 – the lowest since October 2024 – from 48.2 in November. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.1% of the economy. Economists had forecasted the PMI would be little changed at 48.4.
Haver
December 30, 2025
U.S. house prices rose 0.4% m/m in October following a 0.1% dip in September, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. The year-on-year rate of increase eased to 1.7% in October from 1.8% in September – the slowest pace since March 2012.
Haver
December 29, 2025
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings, rose 3.3% m/m to 79.2 in November after increase of 2.4% in October. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 2.6% in November, the highest since August.
Bloomberg
December 30, 2025
Minutes of the Dec. 9-10 FOMC meeting show the decision was “finely balanced” for a few participants who supported the rate cut. Participants held a wide range of views on how restrictive policy is, how quickly it should move toward neutral, and how the economy would evolve. While “most” participants judged further cuts as likely appropriate, “some” felt it could be better to keep rates unchanged “for some time.”
Barron’s
January 5, 2026
2026 is a midterm election year. Such years have historically been the worst of the presidential cycle, with the S&P 500 finishing the year higher just 53% of the time and with an average gain of just 4.6%, while the other three years finished up 78% of the time, with an average gain of 11%. Part of the issue is that much of the good that a president accomplishes occurs during the first year of a term—and is immediately priced in.
Barron’s
January 5, 2026
Silver was up more than 140% in 2025, to $70 an ounce, making it the year’s top performing financial asset. An ounce of silver now costs more than a barrel of oil. The only other time an ounce of silver cost as much as a barrel of oil was in January 1980 when the famous attempt by the Hunt brothers to corner silver sent the metal spiking to $50 an ounce.
Barron’s
January 5, 2026
Fed researchers calculate that higher tariffs reduced average monthly payroll gains by up to 19,000 and likely raised the unemployment rate by 0.1%. However, the negative impact should fade as 2026 progresses due to renewed business confidence in the face of reduced policy uncertainty. That should lead to more hiring, and a firmer labor market.
CNBC
December 31, 2025
Moody’s Mark Zandi expects the central bank to enact three cuts of a quarter percentage point each before mid-year. “Behind the decision to ease monetary policy further will be the still flagging job market, particularly in the early part of 2026,” the chief economist wrote. “It will take more time for businesses to feel certain that they will not be wrong-footed by shifting trade and immigration policies and other threats before they resume hiring.”
Bloomberg
January 4, 2026
A panel of leading economists highlighted mounting federal debt as a central threat to the US economy. With the Congressional Budget Office projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for the year and total debt reaching around 100% of GDP, debt levels could hit 118% over the next decade. Such high debt levels increase the risk of negative economic outcomes if not addressed through effective fiscal policy.
The Wall Street Journal
December 31, 2025
Everyday traders became a dominant force in markets in 2025, pouring record sums into stocks, ETFs, and options. Retail investors now account for more than a fifth of trading volume, buying aggressively during selloffs, driving meme-stock rallies and shaping IPO demand, with analysts saying their influence is likely to persist into 2026.