10 Things You Need to Know: January 27, 2026
Key data releases this week include: durable goods orders (Mon), FHFA House Price Index (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), FOMC rate decision (Wed), trade balance (Thu), factory orders (Thu), and PPI (Fri).
Haver
January 21, 2026
The Pending Home Sales Index fell 9.3% m/m (-3.0% y/y) to 71.8 in December. December marked the first m/m fall since July and the steepest since April 2020. Pending home sales decreased m/m in December across all four major regions.
Haver
January 22, 2026
Real GDP grew 4.4% q/q saar in Q3 2025, up slightly from 4.3% previously reported. The modest upward revision was due mostly to slightly stronger nonresidential fixed investment, a larger increase in exports and a smaller decrease in inventories. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected no revision.
Bloomberg
January 23, 2026
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending increased 2.6% in November from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. By comparison, disposable personal incomes climbed 1% – the smallest annual advance since 2022. The saving rate fell to a three-year low.
CNN
January 23, 2026
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 0.2% m/m in October, which brought the annual rate to 2.8%, unchanged from the September rate. The core PCE price index rose by 0.2% for the fifth month in a row. On an annual basis, the core PCE index rose 2.8%.
Bloomberg Economics
January 25, 2026
Deteriorating transatlantic relations – with US President Donald Trump’s attempted Greenland land grab the latest catalyst – could spur a gradual reallocation of capital. But weaponizing Europe’s roughly $3.5 trillion in US Treasury holdings would be difficult to execute and likely backfire. A ‘sell America’ strategy is not in Europe’s interest: the financial repercussions would be severe, given the region’s heavy reliance on US dollar funding.
CNBC, The Globe and Mail
January 24, 2026, January 26, 2026
President Donald Trump warned the US would impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Ottawa finalizes a trade deal with China, accusing Beijing of using Canada to bypass US tariffs. The threat follows a tentative Canada-China agreement to ease trade barriers and comes amid rising tensions despite Trump previously backing Canada’s outreach to China.
Barron’s
January 26, 2026
As central banks sell their U.S. bond holdings, gold is the natural destination for those funds. And according to recent data, central banks’ gold stashes have topped their holdings of Treasuries, $36.8 trillion versus $31.6 trillion.
Capital Economics
January 23, 2026
We’ll be waiting at least another month now for the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA-related tariffs. That means we’re on Fed Chair watch, to see if Trump finally announces his nominee. The next Fed Chair will at least inherit an economy that is roaring. After a 4.4% annualized gain in the third quarter, we now estimate that fourth-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 5.4%.
Oxford Economics
January 26, 2026
We expect the Federal Open Market Committee to take an extended pause because the fed funds rate is close to neutral. Downside risks to the labor market aren’t as pressing as they appeared a few months ago, while the upside risks to inflation also appear to have moderated. The balance between the two risks remains largely unchanged.