10 Things You Need to Know: January 21, 2026
Key data releases this week include: pending home sales (Wed), Q3 GDP revision (Thu), PCE Price Index (Thu), personal income and spending (Thu), leading economic indicators (Fri), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
BLS
January 13, 2026
The consumer price index rose 0.3% in December (2.7% y/y), while the core index rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y). The Producer Price Index report indicated that wholesale inflation rose by 0.2% for final demand in November 2025, bringing the annual rate to 3.0%. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, was flat for the month, up 3.0% annually.
Haver
January 14, 2026
Total retail sales rose 0.6% m/m (3.3% y/y) in November—exceeding expectations. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.4% (5.1% y/y) in November.
Haver
January 14, 2026
Existing home sales jumped 5.1% m/m (+1.4% y/y) in December to 4.35 million units (SAAR). This was the fourth consecutive monthly gain and was well above the 1.7% m/m increase expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The median price of all existing homes (NSA) declined 1.1% m/m (+0.4% y/y) to $405,400 in December.
Capital Economics
January 19, 2026
If implemented and sustained for a long period, the new tariffs that President Trump has threatened over the Greenland dispute could cost the euro-zone economy something between 0.2% and 0.5% of GDP, with a bigger hit for Germany. In practice though, we doubt that they will be implemented as advertised. We also think the EU will be cautious in any retaliation in an effort to avoid further escalation.
Capital Economics
January 19, 2026
Although full-year growth came in at 5.0% y/y, in line with the government’s target, we estimate that the actual pace of economic expansion was at least 1.5%-pts weaker. The December activity data suggest that output growth gained some momentum at the end of the year, driven by both resilient exports and a recovery in domestic demand.
Barron’s
January 20, 2026
House prices climbed 54.9% nationwide between the first quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of 2025. According to a YouGov poll last month, 87% of Americans surveyed said finding affordable housing is either very difficult or somewhat difficult. First-time home buyers last year shrank to a historic low of just 21%, versus a historical norm of 40%. Meanwhile, the median age of first-time buyers has risen to 40, the highest ever recorded.
Barron’s
January 20, 2026
The current underperformance streak for small caps is a historically long one. A 15-year investor in the S&P 500 index of large companies made 608%, but the S&P SmallCap 600 returned only 353% over that period, and the Russell 2000, another popular small-cap index, 303%. However, if the past link between price/earnings ratios and subsequent stock performance holds, small caps could return 9% annually over the next decade, versus 1% for large caps.
The Wall Street Journal
January 15, 2026
The Justice Department’s criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is complicating President Donald Trump’s decision on a successor. The probe, which Powell claims is a pressure campaign to lower interest rates, has raised concerns about the independence of potential nominees. Senators Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, have stated they won’t vote for any nominee until the investigation is resolved.
Reuters
January 20, 2026
The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on whether President Donald Trump can fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, a case with broad implications for the central bank’s independence. The dispute comes amid a Justice Department probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell and could clarify whether presidents may remove Fed officials for political or nonperformance-related reasons.