10 Things You Need to Know: January 13, 2026
Key data releases this week include: NFIB Small Business optimism (Tue), CPI (Tue), new home sales (Tue), PPI (Wed), retail sales (Wed), existing home sales (Wed), Beige Book (Wed), industrial production (Fri), and NAHB Housing Market Index (Fri).
Haver
January 9, 2025
Nonfarm payrolls rose 50,000 in December. The unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. The drop reflected a jump of 232,000 in employment as measured by the survey of households. Average hourly earnings showed an increase of 0.3% (3.8% y/y).
Reuters
January 7, 2025
Job openings, a measure of labor demand, dropped 303,000 to 7.146 million by the last day of November. October’s openings were revised down to 7.449 million. Economists had forecasted 7.60 million unfilled jobs in November.
Reuters
January 7, 2025
The ISM Services PMI increased to 54.4 last month from 52.6 in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecasted the services PMI dipping to 52.3. The prices index declined slightly by 1.1 points to 64.3, indicating that price pressures are still prevalent.
Capital Economics
January 12, 2025
We expect euro-zone GDP to increase at a moderate pace this year and next. Germany’s fiscal stimulus is likely to be smaller, slower and less effective than many expect. Meanwhile, we forecast inflation to undershoot the 2% target in 2026. On balance we think the ECB is most likely to cut interest rates before the end of the year – we have penciled in 50bp of rate cuts which would bring the deposit rate down to 1.5% by December.
Bloomberg
January 9, 2025
China’s headline CPI rose 0.8% year on year, edging up from 0.7% in November. That matched consensus. Headline PPI fell 1.9% from a year earlier, easing from a 2.2% drop in November. That marked the 39th straight month of decline. Expectations were for a 2.0% fall.
The Economic Times
January 7, 2025
India’s economy is projected to grow 7.4% in fiscal 2025-26, but economists warn of a slowdown in the second half of the year to around 6.9% as global risks, US tariffs, and weaker government capital spending weigh on momentum. While services and investment remain supportive, subdued nominal GDP growth could temper the outlook.
Reuters
January 8, 2025
Investors are showing increased confidence in Latin America following President Donald Trump’s recent actions in Venezuela and Argentina. Trump’s removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has boosted the country’s defaulted debt, while his support for Argentina’s Javier Milei has strengthened the Argentine market. Investors are now closely watching upcoming elections in Colombia, Peru, and Brazil, anticipating further positive impacts on regional financial assets.
FT
January 12, 2025
US prosecutors have initiated a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jay Powell, focusing on a $2.5 billion renovation of the central bank’s headquarters. Powell has strongly denied any wrongdoing, warning the probe is not about the renovation or his congressional testimony, but rather about the Fed’s refusal to yield to President Donald Trump’s demands on interest rate policy.
Bloomberg
January 6, 2025
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said the US central bank will need to cut interest rates by more than a percentage point in 2026, arguing monetary policy is restraining the economy. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari, said his guess was that “we’re pretty close to neutral right now” given resilient economic growth and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin referred to the current level of rates being “within the range of its estimates of neutral.”