10 Things You Need to Know: February 3, 2026
Haver
January 27, 2026
The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.6% (+1.9% y/y) in November, the third m/m gain in four months. House prices increased m/m in November (vs. October) across eight of the nine census divisions.
Haver
January 29, 2026
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $56.8 billion in November from $29.2 billion in October, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a deficit of $43.2 billion. Exports of goods and services fell 3.6% m/m (+5.9% y/y) in November while Imports of goods and services rebounded 5.0% m/m (-1.9% y/y).
BLS
January 30, 2026
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5% (3% y/y) in December. The index for PPI less food, energy, and trade services moved up 0.4% (3.5%) in December.
Capital Economics
January 30, 2026
National data suggest that euro-zone GDP grew by a slightly stronger-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q4. We expect it to maintain that pace in 2026. Meanwhile, we still think inflation will fall below the target this year and prompt the ECB to cut rates.
Capital Economics
January 30, 2026
China’s growth slowed in December, with the economy expanding by just 3.1% in 2025. Export growth and fiscal support will continue to provide a significant prop to the economy over the coming year. But we expect overcapacity and therefore deflation to persist.
Bloomberg
February 2, 2026
President Donald Trump said he was lowering his extra 25% tariff to Indian goods to 18% after Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop buying Russian crude. Trump announced the decision on Monday after a call with Modi, saying that India also agreed to “move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers against the United States, to zero” as well as purchase “over $500 billion of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products.”
Barron’s
February 2, 2026
Gold is usually headed higher. The tricky part is how much and how soon. Deutsche Bank recently calculated that gold has outpaced inflation by 279% over 235 years. That’s barely a half point a year, compounded, including the recent run-up. On shorter timelines, gold looks great. It has beaten the U.S. stock market over the past 20 years.
Barron’s
February 2, 2026
Earnings season has gotten off to a solid start, with about 165 S&P 500 index companies having already released results. Roughly three-quarters have beaten earnings-per-share estimates, while nearly two-thirds have surpassed sales expectations. This week is the busiest, with more than 115 companies set to report.
Barron’s
February 2, 2026
According to federal data, healthcare inflation is running at a 3.5% annualized rate. But the real-world inflation rate for retirees’ healthcare is higher. In fact, 5.8% is the average annual increase of healthcare costs throughout retirement. This growth rate encompasses healthcare cost inflation and the fact that as people age, they tend to use more services.
WSJ
January 27, 2026
The US economy might be experiencing a sustained increase in its potential growth rate, the World Bank suggests. The bank estimates that the US expanded by 2.1% in 2025, averaging 2.6% since 2022, compared to 2.2% in the previous decade. This higher growth rate, driven by increased investment and productivity, could allow for faster economic expansion without triggering inflation.