10 Things You Need to Know: February 18, 2026
Key data releases this week include: NAHB Housing Index (Tue), durable goods orders (Wed), housing starts (Wed), industrial production (Wed), FOMC meeting minutes (Wed), leading economic indicators (Thu), pending home sales (Thu), Q4 GDP (Fri), new home sales (Fri), personal income and spending (Fri), consumer sentiment (Fri), and PCE Price Index (Fri).
Bloomberg
February 10, 2026
The NFIB optimism index slipped 0.2 to 99.3. Seven of the 10 components that make up the gauge decreased, while three increased. The net share of owners who expect business conditions to improve fell 3 points to 21% after climbing to a four-month high in December. An easing in hiring plans and a smaller share of companies reporting job openings also weighed on the index.
Haver
February 10, 2026
Total retail sales were essentially flat m/m in December, falling short of expectations, following a 0.6% increase in November. A 0.5% m/m December increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate decelerated to 2.4% in December. Sales in the retail control group eased 0.1% (+3.4% y/y).
Bloomberg
February 11, 2026
Employers added 130,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate declined to 4.3%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. That followed revisions to the prior year, which showed a marked slowdown in hiring. Job gains averaged just 15,000 a month last year, down from the initially reported 49,000 pace.
Haver
February 12, 2026
Existing home sales fell 8.4% m/m (-4.4% y/y) to 3.91 million units (SAAR) in January following a downwardly revised 4.4% gain to 4.27 million in December. It was the deepest m/m drop since February 2022, well below the Action Economics Forecast Survey expectation of 4.20 million. The median price of all existing homes fell 2.0% (+0.9% y/y) to $396,800 in January.
Haver
February 13, 2026
The consumer price index rose 0.2% in January, slower than the expected increase of 0.3%. The latest monthly increase left the year-over-year at 2.4%, down from a recent high of 3.0% in September. The core component (ex-food and energy) rose 0.3%. The year-over-year increase in core prices moved to a new low for the current period of deceleration (2.5%).
Bloomberg, Politico
February 10, 2026
The European Parliament is nearing approval of a US trade deal after senior lawmakers agreed to amendments, including a sunset clause that would expire the deal in March 2028 unless the US reduces a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum to 15%. Failure to do so could prompt the EU to reinstate levies on US imports.
Bloomberg
February 13, 2026
The US Supreme Court scheduled Feb. 20 as its next opinion day amid a global wait for a ruling that could invalidate most of President Trump’s signature tariffs. The justices also are expected to issue opinions on Feb. 24 and 25 as the court returns from a four-week recess. The tariff clash is one of 12 cases that were argued in October or November and haven’t yet been decided.
Bloomberg
February 13, 2026
Social Security, which provides benefits to about 70 million Americans, could run out of money sooner than expected, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office. The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund, which pays out retiree and survivor benefits, is projected to run out of money in 2032, according to new projections from the CBO, the nonpartisan federal agency that provides Congress with independent analysis of budgetary and economic issues.
FT, The Washington Post
February 11, 2026
The Congressional Budget Office said the US fiscal trajectory is “not sustainable,” projecting deficits to rise by $1.4 trillion over the next decade. Debt is forecast to exceed 106% of GDP by 2030 and reach 175% by 2056, with annual interest costs expected to more than double to $2.1 trillion by 2036. Permanent tax cuts, reduced immigration and higher borrowing costs are cited as key drivers of the worsening outlook.