10 Things You Need to Know: February 10, 2026
Key data releases this week include: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), retail sales (Tue), import prices (Tue), nonfarm payrolls (Wed), existing home sales (Thu), and CPI (Fri).
Haver
February 2, 2025
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a stronger-than-expected 52.6 in January. The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the first time since January 2025 following 26 consecutive months of contraction. A reading of 48.4 was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The Wall Street Journal
February 5, 2025
The US job market has had a challenging start to 2026, with companies announcing significant layoffs and showing reluctance to hire. US job openings fell by 386,000 in December to the lowest level since September 2020, while companies announced 108,400 job cuts in January, the highest for the month since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits rose to 231,000 last week.
Haver
February 4, 2025
The U.S. ISM Services PMI held at 53.8 in January and December following ISM’s latest seasonal adjustments. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 53.6 for January. On the inflation front, the prices index rose to 66.6 in January from 65.1 in December.
Bloomberg, Reuters, FXStreet
February 5, 2025
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, with President Christine Lagarde saying inflation is in a “good place” and playing down the impact of the euro’s recent strength. Lagarde said risks to the inflation outlook are broadly balanced and reiterated that policy decisions will be guided by incoming data, even as officials monitor the currency’s path amid heightened uncertainty about growth and trade tensions.
Bloomberg
February 9, 2025
Chinese regulators have instructed major financial institutions them to limit additional purchases of US Treasurys and reduce current exposure where holdings are high. This move, communicated over the past few weeks, is driven by growing official concern about market volatility and the potential risks of concentration in US government debt.
Bloomberg
February 9, 2025
Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi secured a historic election triumph, positioning her as the nation’s strongest leader in the postwar era and sending stock prices and bond yields soaring. The ruling coalition won 352 seats in the lower house, expanding its previous razor-thin majority of 233 by a considerable margin giving Takaichi a mandate to push ahead with bold spending plans.
Barron’s
February 9, 2025
RBC analyst Tom Narayan projects some 350 million robots sold annually at an estimated $25,000 each, by 2050, pointing to a $9 trillion market. Morgan Stanley’s Jonas projects a $25 trillion market by 2040, though his estimate includes cars, drones, humanoids, and other form factors. Even one of the least optimistic analysts, UBS’ Phyllis Wang, projects a global population of 300 million humanoid robots by 2050, implying an addressable market of $1.4 trillion to $1.7 trillion.
Bloomberg
February 9, 2025
Kevin Warsh’s proposal for a new accord between the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury, modeled on the 1951 agreement that formalized the Fed’s independence, has stirred debate across the $30 trillion bond market. Investors and analysts say the idea could reshape the relationship between fiscal and monetary authorities, with potential implications for Treasury issuance, the Fed’s balance sheet and long-term rate dynamics.
Bloomberg
February 9, 2025
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said lower US jobs numbers can be expected in the months ahead as population growth slows. “I think that you should expect slightly smaller job numbers that are consistent with high GDP growth right now,” Hassett said. Hassett added that the so-called breakeven rate — or the pace of job gains required each month to keep the unemployment rate steady — is “quite a bit lower” than it was under former President Joe Biden.