10 Things You Need to Know: December 9, 2025
Haver
December 3, 2025
The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls during November declined 32,000 (+0.6% y/y) after increasing 47,000 in October. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 10,000 increase in November. Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) declined 120,000 (-0.2% y/y) after weakening 24,000 in October.
Haver
December 3, 2025
The ISM Services Index increased to 52.6 during November after improving to 52.4 in October, following a decline to 50.0 in September. The prices paid index declined to 65.4 last month after surging to 70.0 in October. Most components of the services index increased last month.
Haver
December 5, 2025
The PCE chain price index increased 0.3% in September after rising 0.3% in August. The y/y gain rose to 2.8 from 2.7% in August. The PCE price index excluding food and energy prices rose 0.2% (2.8%) for the third straight month.
Haver
December 5, 2025
Personal consumption expenditures in September improved 0.3% (5.0% y/y) after increasing 0.5% for three consecutive months. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Personal income increased an expected 0.4% (5.2% y/y), the same as in August.
Capital Economics
December 5, 2025
We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise growth elsewhere. Meanwhile, we think inflation will undershoot the 2% target in 2026 as energy prices fall and wage growth slows further, so the balance of risks is tilted towards rate cuts. We have penciled in the ECB cutting its deposit rate from 2% currently to 1.5% next year.
South China Morning Post
December 8, 2025
China’s goods trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in the first 11 months of this year, reaching $1.076 trillion, driven by booming exports despite US tariffs. While exports to the US fell significantly, shipments to other regions, particularly Southeast Asia, grew rapidly, suggesting widespread trade rerouting to circumvent US tariffs.
Barron’s
December 8, 2025
A reduction so far of 150 basis points in the federal funds target since September 2024 has translated into a rise of some 50 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield. That’s the only time in the past four-plus decades that has happened, Bianco observed. The four other Fed easing episodes saw the 10-year yield decline.
Barron’s
December 8, 2025
Two new forecasts say home prices will rise modestly next year: Redfin expects a 1% price increase nationally, while Realtor.com sees a 2.2% uptick. Both anticipate prices growing slower than wages, and mortgage rates averaging 6.3%. Redfin predicts a 3% rise in sales, while Realtor.com estimates 1.7%.
Capital Economics
December 3, 2025
We expect concerns over softening labor market conditions among the doves on the FOMC to win out (this) week, resulting in another 25bp cut. But in return, the more hawkish members are likely to secure language in the policy statement about the prospect of a pause in the new year.
Bloomberg
December 4, 2025
The recent Beige Book noted more companies were turning to “hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring, and attrition,” and some had opted to adjust workers’ hours rather than pursue layoffs. Several firms mentioned AI as replacing entry-level positions or enhancing existing workers’ productivity enough to curb hiring.