10 Things You Need to Know: December 30, 2025
Haver
December 29, 2025
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings, rose 3.3% m/m to 79.2 in November after an increase of 2.4% in October. The November reading registered the fourth consecutive m/m gain after declining in July and June. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 2.6% in November, the highest since August.
Haver
December 23, 2025
New orders for durable goods fell a more-than-expected 2.2% (4.8% y/y) in October following an upwardly revised 0.7% m/m rise in September. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.5% m/m decline. Nondefense orders excluding aircraft rose 0.5% (6.4% y/y).
Haver
December 23, 2025
Real GDP grew 4.3% (SAAR) during the third quarter following a 3.8% Q2 gain. A 3.0% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Foreign trade balance improvement added 1.59 percentage points to growth last quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3.0% (2.6% y/y). Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.5% (2.6% y/y).
Haver
December 23, 2025
Industrial production rose 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y) in November. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% monthly gain. Manufacturing activity was tepid with manufacturing production unchanged in November. Capacity utilization edged up to 76.0%.
Barron’s
December 29, 2025
Gold has now beaten the S&P 500 index, not just in 2025, but over the past two decades, 791% to 703%. Economist Ed Yardeni has a particularly shiny forecast. In his view, gold and the S&P 500, recently 6,934, are following the same trendline. “If the S&P 500 reaches 10,000 by the end of 2029, as we expect, gold should trade at $10,000,” he wrote this past week.
Barron’s
December 29, 2025
Bank of America estimates that the OBBBA will result in total tax refunds rising by roughly 18%, or some $65 billion compared with recent years, to a total of $425 billion. That is just over half of the $814 billion in total stimulus in 2020-21, but still well above average. And if a tariff dividend comes to fruition—Kalshi, a prediction market, puts a 39% chance of that happening in 2026—it could mean an additional $2,000 for everyone with incomes below a certain threshold.
LPL Financial, Barron’s
December 29, 2025
This rate-cutting cycle is unique because stocks are near all-time highs. In previous instances when the Fed cut rates, stocks were at or near record highs (we found 28 cases) and the S&P 500 was 13% higher on average 12 months later, with 93% of those 28 periods producing gains. Filtering that further, when the U.S. economy wasn’t in recession around a rate cut, the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 increased to 18%, with gains in all 21 periods.
FX Street
December 23, 2025
US National Economic Council chair Kevin Hassett, a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, has criticized the central bank for not cutting interest rates swiftly enough, despite robust economic growth driven by the artificial intelligence boom and tariffs. In an interview, Hassett said the US is “way behind the curve” compared with other central banks.
Bloomberg
December 23, 2025
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent backed the idea of reconsidering the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target once the US has sustainably brought price increases back to that pace. The discussion could potentially be framed around a switch to 1.5% to 2.5% or 1% to 3%, Bessent suggested, which was posted on Dec. 22. “There is a very robust conversation” to be had, he said.
The Hill
December 22, 2025
Lawmakers are under pressure to avert another government shutdown, with a deadline looming just weeks after the last stopgap funding measure. House Speaker Mike Johnson aims to pass funding bills by Jan. 30, a goal many GOP members doubt is achievable. Senate leaders Chuck Schumer and John Thune have pledged to work together to complete the appropriations process.