10 Things You Need to Know: December 24, 2024
Key data releases this week include: durable goods orders (Mon), new home sales (Mon), and consumer confidence (Mon).
Haver
December 17, 2024
Total retail sales increased 0.7% (3.8% Y/Y) during November after rising 0.5% in October. A 0.5% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.4% during November (4.3% y/y) after easing an unrevised 0.1% in October.
Bloomberg
December 18, 2024
The US economy expanded at a faster pace in the third quarter than previously estimated, owing in part to stronger consumer spending and exports. GDP increased at a 3.1% annualized rate in the July-to-September period, the third estimate of the figures. That compared to the previous projection of 2.8%.
Barron’s
December 19, 2024
The Leading Economic Index, published by research group The Conference Board increased 0.3% in November, following a 0.4% decline in October, also beating economists’ expectations of a 0.1% fall from a poll by The Wall Street Journal. It rose in November for the first time since February 2022.
Haver
December 19, 2024
Sales of existing homes increased 4.8% (6.1% y/y) to 4.15 million (SAAR) during November from an unrevised 3.96 million in October. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected November sales of 4.09 million units. The median price of all existing homes (NSA) eased 0.2% (+4.7% y/y) in November to $406,100.
Haver
December 20, 2024
The PCE chain price index edged 0.1% (y/y 2.4%) higher in November, following gains of 0.2% in both of the prior two months. The price index excluding food and energy also inched up 0.1% (y/y 2.8%) last month, after two months of 0.3% gain.
Barron’s
December 23, 2024
The muni market has a lot going for it right now, with yields solid even on high-credit-quality issues. Municipalities are generally in good fiscal shape, and the economy looks to remain solid going into 2025. For an investor in a high-tax state who is in the highest tax bracket, some effective muni fund yields are closer to 6% to 7%, rivaling long-run equity returns.
Barron’s
December 23, 2024
Monetary policy is far less restrictive now than just a few months ago. The Federal Open Market Committee’s new fed-funds target range of 4.25% to 4.50% is down a full percentage point since the central bank’s initial cut in September. The FOMC’s new fed-funds target for the end of 2025—3.9%, up from 3.4% anticipated in September—is just 90 basis points above its new estimate of neutral at 3%.
Reuters, The Associated Press
December 20, 2024, December 21, 2024
Federal government shutdown was averted after the Senate passed a bipartisan spending bill that funds the government through March 14. The bill does not raise the debt ceiling and excludes measures such as restrictions on US investments in China and new rules for pharmacy benefit managers. Investors expect more budget crises to come next year, as Republicans face internal divisions and a slim majority in Congress.
Capital Economics
December 19, 2024
We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and immigration curbs via executive action by the middle of next year, we would expect GDP growth to run close to 1.5% at an annualized pace over the following 12 months, with inflation temporarily rebounding to around 3%.