10 Things You Need to Know: December 23, 2025
Haver
December 16, 2025
Total retail sales were virtually unchanged m/m (3.5% y/y) in October after downwardly revised increases of 0.1% in September. A 0.1% m/m October increase was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.8% (5.1% y/y) in October.
Haver
December 16, 2025
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November but fell 105,000 in October. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected an 80,000 decrease in October and a 35,000 increase in November. This softening was reinforced by a 0.2%-point jump in the unemployment rate, to 4.6% in November. Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1% m/m (3.5% y/y) in November.
Haver
December 19, 2025
The Consumer Price Index increased 2.7% y/y during November, down from 2.8% in October. The 0.2% m/m increase fell short of the 0.3% gain expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.1% (2.6% y/y) in November. The November inflation report was met with skepticism due to significant data integrity issues.
Haver
December 19, 2025
Existing home sales rose 0.5% m/m (-1.0% y/y) in November to 4.13 million homes (SAAR). It was the highest level of sales since February and matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The median price of all existing homes (NSA) fell 1.4% m/m (+1.2% y/y) to $409,200.
Reuters
December 18, 2025
Investors are hoping for a significant economic boost from Germany to rejuvenate European markets as German fiscal reforms aim to increase infrastructure and defense spending. However, there is skepticism about the effectiveness of this stimulus, as much of the spending has been directed toward day-to-day expenses rather than long-term projects. European stocks have underperformed US stocks, and the euro’s performance largely depends on the US dollar’s strength.
China Daily
December 22, 2025
The People’s Bank of China has maintained its one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, for the seventh consecutive month, despite disappointing economic data and a prolonged downturn in the real estate sector. Retail sales and industrial output for November fell short of expectations, while investment in fixed assets declined more than anticipated.
Capital Economics
December 16, 2025
EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth stems from a few large economies – China, Brazil and Russia. EM equity markets are likely to post solid gains next year, particularly in Asia. But a repeat of this year’s stellar outperformance is unlikely, and most currencies will fall against the dollar.
Barron’s
December 22, 2025
Mining vast troves of data, AI is setting prices for everything from airline tickets to groceries. The tools are getting smarter as they learn about our shopping habits. They’re also getting personal, generating prices and offers that hinge partly on what the AI thinks you’re worth as a customer and would pay.
Reuters
December 17, 2025
President Donald Trump has made it clear that his preference for the next Federal Reserve chair is someone who strongly supports much lower interest rates than current levels. Trump announced that he will soon select a candidate committed to reducing rates “by a lot,” with the goal of lowering mortgage payments further. He also suggested that the new Fed chair should consult with him directly on rate decisions, a departure from recent norms of central bank independence.
Capital Economics
December 18, 2025
We are increasingly confident that the surge in AI-related investment this year marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. Even allowing for ongoing labor market softness that will weigh on consumption, we expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in both 2026. With core inflation remaining above the 2% target, we think the Fed will cut its policy rate by only 25bp in 2026.