10 Things You Need to Know: December 2, 2025
Bloomberg
December 1, 2025
US factory activity shrank in November by the most in four months as orders weakened, indicating manufacturers are struggling to break free from an extended period of malaise. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index eased 0.5 point to 48.2. The prices index increased to 58.50 points in November from 58 points in October.
Haver
November 24, 2025
The National Association for Business Economics expects real GDP to grow 2.0% in 2025, revised from 1.8% expected in the October survey, and 1.9% in 2026, revised from 1.7%. These growth rates compare to 2.8% in 2024.
Haver
November 25, 2025
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose an expected 0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y) in September following a 0.1% ease in August. The latest m/m increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Producer prices excluding food & energy edged up 0.1% (2.6% y/y) in September after a 0.1% downtick in August.
Haver
November 25, 2025
Total retail sales increased 0.2% (4.3% y/y) in September following an unrevised 0.6% August rise. The gain compared to a 0.4% increase expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group dipped 0.1% (+4.1% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in August.
Haver
November 25, 2025
The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence fell 7.1% in November to 88.7. A level of 92.5 had been expected this month in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The decline in Consumer Confidence was the fourth consecutive monthly drop. The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months remained steady at 5.7%.
Barron’s
December 1, 2025
With over 95% of companies reporting third-quarter earnings, S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth is coming in at 13%, above the 7.4% consensus forecast.
Barron’s
December 1, 2025
A well-structured investment-grade muni portfolio with an A rating on average can yield about 4% tax-free. You’d have to earn more than 6½% in taxable markets for a comparable yield. That 6.5% taxable-equivalent yield is about 150 basis points, or 1.5 percentage points, above corresponding corporate bonds and 2.5 percentage points higher than Treasuries.
Bloomberg, Axios
November 30, 2025, December 1, 2025
President Donald Trump said he has selected his nominee for Federal Reserve chair but did not disclose the name. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is widely viewed as the leading candidate. The nominee would require Senate confirmation for a 14-year term beginning in February. Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May.
Wall Street Journal
November 24, 2025
US economic growth is increasingly dependent on investment in artificial intelligence, with business investment in AI potentially accounting for up to half of GDP growth in the first half of the year, analysts say. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms are expected to spend $344 billion on capital expenditures this year, with AI-related investment boosting GDP growth by about 1% in the first half, but the trend poses risks, as a downturn in AI spending could lead to a recession.
CNBC
November 26, 2025
Massachusetts Institute of Technology released a study that found that artificial intelligence can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market. The study was conducted using a labor simulation tool called the Iceberg Index, which was created by MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The index simulates how 151 million U.S. workers interact across the country and how they are affected by AI and corresponding policy.