10 Things You Need To Know: December 19, 2023
Key data releases this week include: NAHB Housing Index (Mon), housing starts (Tue), consumer confidence (Wed), Q3 GDP revision (Thu), leading economic indicators (Thu), personal income and spending (Fri), durable goods orders (Fri), new home sales (Fri), and PCE deflator (Fri).
Haver
December 12, 2023
The Consumer Price Index edged 0.1% higher last month following stability during October. An unchanged level of the CPI had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 3.1% y/y rise remained below the peak 9.1% increase in June of last year. Prices excluding food & energy matched expectations and rose 0.3% last month. The steady 4.0% y/y increase remained below the peak 6.6% gain in September 2022.
Haver
December 13, 2023
The Producer Price Index for final demand remained unchanged (+0.9% y/y) last month following a 0.4% October decline. No change in prices had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The PPI excluding food and energy prices held steady (2.0% y/y) in November following stability in October. A 0.2% increase had been expected.
Haver
December 14. 2023
Consumer spending increased last month as job growth continued. Retail sales rose 0.3% (4.1% y/y) during November following a 0.2% October decline. A 0.1% November easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants, increased 0.4% (4.9% y/y) after no change in October.
Capital Economics
December 15, 2023
In contrast to the Fed, the ECB pushed back this week against expectations that it would start to cut interest rates in early 2024. But we still think that a weak economy and continued declines in price pressures will prompt the ECB to start cutting interest rates by around April next year.
Bloomberg
December 15, 2023
China’s economic recovery remained beleaguered by weak demand and a lingering property crisis last month, putting more pressure on Beijing to roll out supportive policies to juice growth. “Discounting the base effect, it’s obvious that China’s economy slowed further in November, especially in terms of retail sales and property,” said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Group.
Barron’s
December 18, 2023
Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, says: “If the economy is doing reasonably well and inflation is coming down, the Fed isn’t going to rush to lower interest rates—there isn’t going to be any need for it,” Yardeni says. “These are the kinds of rates that we had before the financial crisis, and the stock market did well, the economy did well. We’re basically back to the old normal.”
Barron’s
December 18, 2023
Some 30% of small businesses are now using credit cards for financing, and overall credit-card debt levels for these firms are up 20% from the pre-pandemic years, according to the Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index annual report. That could indicate more small firms are facing trouble and growing more desperate for outside financing.
Bloomberg
December 18, 2023
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester were the latest to join a growing chorus of central bank officials tempering market optimism after their New York counterpart John Williams last week said bets on a March reduction were premature
Capital Economics
December 11, 2023
As well as benefiting from a cyclical economic recovery and easing monetary policy next year, we think stocks will be lifted by enthusiasm around Artificial Intelligence (AI). We project average annual returns of ~20% from global equities in 2024 and 2025.