10 Things You Need to Know: August 5, 2025
Key data releases this week include: factory orders (Mon), trade balance (Tue), ISM Services (Tue), nonfarm productivity (Thu), and consumer credit (Thu).
Haver
July 29, 2025
U.S. house prices weakened 0.2% (+2.8% y/y) during May after falling 0.3% in April, revised from down 0.4% and holding steady in March, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index.
Haver
July 30, 2025
Real GDP grew 3.0% (SAAR) during the second quarter of 2025 after falling an unrevised 0.5% in Q1. A 2.3% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the increase, annualized growth averaged only 1.2% in the first half of this year, less than half the gain for 2024.
Haver
July 31, 2025
Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3% (+4.7% y/y) in June after no change in May. The rise compared to expectations for a 0.4% increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Personal income rose 0.3% last month (4.7% y/y) after falling 0.4% in May. A 0.2% gain was expected. The PCE chain price index increased 0.3% (2.6% y/y) during June after rising 0.2% in May. The price index excluding food & energy rose 0.3% (2.8%).
Haver
August 1, 2025
Nonfarm payrolls increased 73,000 during July after rising 14,000 in June and 19,000 in May. Expectations had been for a 102,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Average hourly earnings rose an expected 0.3% (3.9% y/y) during July. The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, edged up m/m to an expected 4.2% from 4.1%.
Capital Economics
July 28, 2025
The trade agreement confirmed by Presidents Trump and von der Leyen could result in the average tariff on US imports from the EU rising from 1.2% last year to about 17%. We think this will reduce EU GDP by about 0.5%, which is worse than we had previously assumed. While the deal has avoided a much worse outcome for now, it remains to be seen whether it will last.
WSJ, CNN
July 29, 2025, July 30, 2025
The US and China have agreed to extend their tariff truce, said Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang, however Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later said, “our Chinese counterparts have jumped the gun a little.” Bessent said he’d give US President Donald Trump the facts for him to “decide” if a truce will be maintained before its expiry due in two weeks.
Barron’s
August 4, 2025
“The FOMC chair is always the chairman of the Fed, but it doesn’t have to be. It’s not in the law, it’s not in the rules, or anything like that,” says Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chair who teaches economics at Princeton University. Were the Fed chair to be consistently in the minority on monetary-policy decisions, the other board members could seize power for themselves and appoint a new FOMC chair. “I think there are very few people in the markets who know that fact,” he says.
Reuters, WSJ
July 31, 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-2 to keep the federal funds rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change in the benchmark rate. The vote marks the first time since 1993 that multiple Federal Reserve governors have dissented. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler’s resignation has given President Donald Trump an unexpected opportunity to appoint a new member to the Fed.
FT, WSJ
August 4, 2025, August 3, 2025
President Donald Trump plans a major overhaul of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after firing Commissioner Erika McEntarfer following worse-than-expected employment data. Trump aims to place allies in the agency to ensure “more transparent and reliable” data, says National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.