10 Things You Need to Know: August 4, 2026
Key data releases this week include: ISM Manufacturing (Mon), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Tue), trade balance (Tue), factory orders (Tue), ISM Services (Wed), nonfarm productivity (Thu), consumer credit (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Bloomberg
August 3, 2026
The Institute for Supply Management’s July manufacturing gauge rose to 55.6, the highest since May 2022. The employment measure indicated that manufacturers increased headcount for the first time since September 2023. New orders growth — a sign of demand — also picked up.
FHFA
July 28, 2026
U.S. house prices rose nationwide in May, up 0.3% from the previous month, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index. House prices rose 2.2% year over year. The previously reported 0.1% price decline in April remained unchanged.
Haver
July 30, 2026
The PCE Price Index fell 0.1% in June, led by a drop of 5.9% in the energy component. The decline pushed the year-over-year increase to 3.7%, down from 4.1% in May but still above readings of 2.9% in January and February, before the Iran conflict became a factor.
Bloomberg
July 30, 2026
Personal income rose 0.2% month-over-month, slowing from 0.7% in May. The deceleration reflected a larger-than-expected drop in farmers’ income and employee compensation that increased less than implied by the June jobs report. Nominal personal spending rose 0.3% month over month. The personal saving rate fell to 2.7% in June from a downwardly revised 2.8% in May.
Haver
July 30, 2026
Real GDP grew 1.5% q/q saar (2.1% y/y) in Q2 following a 2.1% increase in Q1. Personal consumption expenditures and business spending on equipment and intellectual property provided much of the boost to overall GDP growth in Q2. PCE grew 3.2% q/q saar. Business spending on equipment posted a second consecutive double-digit quarterly gain in Q2, increasing 15.2%.
Barron’s
August 3, 2026
The clear message this earnings season is that there is real profit to be had from all that AI capex. The hyperscalers may be marrying their balance sheets and cash flow statements, but their income statements are now seeing a very clear benefit. Despite all the new data centers already built, cloud capacity remains very tight at all three firms (Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet).
Barron’s
August 3, 2026
The S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise more than 27% during the second quarter from last year to just under $702 billion, modestly slower than the nearly 30% advance recorded in the first quarter. It would be the best first half profit performance since 2020. However, a staggering 40% of S&P 500 earnings growth will come from just two stocks: Micron Technology and Nvidia.
Bloomberg Economics
July 29, 2026
The FOMC held rates steady despite a strong internal and external push to hike. That speaks to the new chairman’s growing soft power. Conditioned on our forecast that the next two inflation and jobs print will be soft, we think the Fed won’t hike this year.
Bloomberg
July 2, 2026
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has raised the possibility of changing the frequency of the US central bank’s regular policy meetings, according to people familiar with the matter. One idea Warsh floated is for Fed policymakers to meet six times a year to decide on interest rates and other monetary policy issues and twice a year for discussion of a substantive economic topic.