10 Things You Need to Know: August 26, 2025
Key data releases this week include: new home sales (Mon), FHFA House Price Index (Tue), durable goods orders (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), Q2 GDP revision (Thu), pending home sales (Fri), personal income and spending (Fri), and PCE Price Index (Fri).
MorningStar
August 21, 2025
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.1% to 98.7 in July, cooling from the 0.3% fall in June and matching expectations of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. “Pessimistic consumer expectations for business conditions and weak new orders continued to weigh down the index,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board.
Haver
August 21, 2025
Existing home sales rose 2.0% (0.8% y/y) to 4.01 million (SAAR) in July after falling 2.7% in June. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 3.91 million units. The median price of all existing homes (NSA) in July weakened 2.4% (+0.2% y/y) from the June record to $422,400.
Reuters, Axios
August 19, 2025, August 20, 2025
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the U.S.-China trade truce as “working pretty well,” highlighting improved dialogue and resumed rare earth magnet shipments from China. He noted that recent talks have been productive and that both sides have refrained from escalating tariffs ahead of the truce’s November expiration.
Capital Economics
August 21, 2025
A total tariff of 50% for India would be large enough to have a material impact on GDP growth. If it sticks, the resulting drop in exports to the US could reduce GDP growth by 0.8%-pts both this year and next. Meanwhile, headline inflation has come in weaker than expected over recent months. Combined with the tariff threat, this has increased the chances of the Reserve Bank of India resuming its monetary easing cycle this year.
Barron’s
August 25, 2025
Powell’s much-anticipated keynote address to the Kansas City Fed’s annual policy confab in Jackson Hole, Wyo., delivered what financial market participants had hoped to hear: The FOMC is prepared to resume easing its monetary policy at its next meeting, which concludes Sept. 17. That is likely to come via a 25-basis-point (one-quarter percentage point) reduction in the federal-funds rate target range, which has remained at 4.25% to 4.50% since last December.
Barron’s
August 25, 2025
Futures continue to price in an additional 25-basis-point cut either at the October or the December FOMC meeting, which would put the rate in line with 3.9% year-end median midpoint of the fed-funds target range contained in the committee’s last Summary of Economic Projections released in June. But the futures market is pricing in five cuts totaling 125 basis points, to a 3% to 3.25% range, by next July. That would be substantially below the 3.6% midpoint median from the last SEP.
The Wall Street Journal
August 19, 2025
S&P Global has reaffirmed its AA+ credit rating for the US, citing revenue from President Donald Trump’s tariffs as a key factor in offsetting the fiscal impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which includes tax cuts and increased spending. S&P projects the government deficit to average 6% of GDP from 2025 to 2028, down from 7.5% in 2024.
The Wall Street Journal
August 24, 2025
The US labor market is experiencing a significant shift due to a dramatic decrease in immigration, with net immigration potentially turning negative for the first time in decades. Economists warn that without positive net immigration, the labor force will struggle to grow, potentially leading to larger budget deficits and reduced economic dynamism.
Bloomberg
August 25, 2025
Thanks to a breakneck pace of new launches, there are now more than 4,300 exchange-traded funds, a figure that for the first time eclipses the total number of stocks, currently hovering around 4,200, data compiled by Morningstar shows. ETFs account for about a quarter of the total universe of investment vehicles, up from 9% a decade ago. The ETF market has become increasingly saturated and complex, with thousands of near-identical strategies that have similar-sounding tickers, many of which fail to gain traction and eventually close. Issuers have launched more than 640 ETFs this year.