10 Things You Need to Know: August 25, 2026
Key data releases this week include: FHFA House Price Index (Tue), new home sales (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), PCE Price Index (Wed), personal income and spending (Wed), Q2 GDP revision (Wed), durable goods orders (Wed), consumer sentiment (Fri), and Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole (Fri).
Haver
August 18, 2026
Housing starts plunged 12.4% m/m in July after a 19.7% monthly surge in June. Single family starts fell 9.9% m/m to their lowest level since November 2022 while multi-family starts plummeted 16.8% m/m. Less volatile permits increased by 5.0% m/m in July with a 2.5% monthly gain in single-family permits and a 9.4% monthly jump in multi-family permits.
Haver
August 18, 2026
Industrial production rose 0.2% m/m (+1.1% y/y) in July. A 0.3% m/m July increase was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Manufacturing production grew 0.2% (1.2% y/y) in July. Capacity utilization inched up to 76.3% in July, the highest since July 2025.
Bloomberg
August 21, 2026
The euro area’s Composite PMI rose to 52.1 from 52 in July. “The manufacturing sector is again the star performer,” Chris Williamson, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said. As well as precautionary stock building, “there are also encouraging signs of rising demand for AI-related tech goods and rising equipment demand thanks to higher defense spending…Further imminent rate hikes cannot be ruled out,” he added.
Bloomberg
August 24, 2026,
The European Union’s existing and proposed trade measures against China could cover about 27% of its annual nominal exports to the bloc. Meanwhile, the US is set to impose a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods over allegations of excess manufacturing capacity before a planned summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump next month. The move would restore Trump’s second-term duties on China to around 20%.
Barron’s
August 24, 2026
Paul Volcker changed FOMC procedures in such a way that let the market set interest rates, which dramatically boosted interest rates, says Gary Richardson, professor at the University of California. He believes that Warsh’s reduction in forward guidance, as well as a smaller balance sheet, also will let the market set longer-term interest rates and probably spur a rise in those rates.
Barron’s
August 24, 2026
A new age of American manufacturing may be dawning, one that looks much different from the old one. Its most prominent feature is artificial intelligence. At the same time, the end product of those centers—AI—is starting to improve manufacturing processes across industries. Meanwhile, global conflict is lifting the aerospace and defense industries. And many American companies are starting to replenish inventories after a long stretch of running them light.
FT, WSJ
August 23, 2026, August 24, 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will use his first Jackson Hole speech to defend a leaner communications strategy as investors question the central bank’s inflation outlook and credibility. Economists warn limited guidance could add to long-yield volatility and policy uncertainty, though some say less market micromanagement may restore focus on economic data.
WSJ, CNBC
August 19, 2026, August 19, 2026
US government debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, more than doubling over the past decade as large deficits and rising interest costs strain federal finances. The milestone comes as higher Treasury yields, AI-linked corporate borrowing and inflation concerns increase pressure on government funding costs and long-end debt markets.
Commerzbank
August 20, 2026
The US economy is growing at a solid rate of almost 2.5% this year, with AI investments and deregulation offsetting the negative effects of tariffs, migration and higher energy prices. The Fed will delay rate cuts until mid-next year and cut rates by 75bp starting next June.