10 Things You Need to Know: August 12, 2025
Key data releases this week include: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), CPI (Tue), PPI (Thu), retail sales (Fri), import prices (Fri), industrial production (Fri), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
August 5, 2025
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) narrowed to $60.18 billion in June after widening to $71.66 billion in May. This was the second month in three in which the deficit had narrowed. A deficit of $61.6 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Haver
August 5, 2025
The U.S. ISM Services PMI declined to 50.1 during July, after rising to 50.8 in June. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 51.5 for July. The prices index surged to 69.9 in July after easing to 67.5 in June. It was the highest level since October 2022.
Haver
August 7, 2025
Nonfarm business labor productivity (output per hour) rebounded in Q2, increasing by 2.4% q/q (SAAR) after having fallen 1.8% in Q1. A 2.0% quarterly increase in Q2 was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Capital Economics
August 7, 2025
Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish this year as low confidence and slowing income growth weigh on consumption. Next year, Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary boost to growth. Otherwise, we think the ECB’s easing cycle has now come to a close, with the deposit rate set to stay at 2.0%.
Bloomberg
August 11, 2025
President Donald Trump extended a pause of sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days, stabilizing trade ties between the world’s two largest economies. Trump signed an order extending the truce, according to a person familiar with the matter. The pact, which saw the US and China agree to reduce tit-for-tat tariff hikes and ease export restrictions on rare earth magnets and certain technologies, was due to expire Tuesday.
Capital Economics
August 8, 2025
The extra 25% US tariff on India for its continued economic ties with Russia, on top of the 25% tariff that took effect [last] week, would significantly dent India’s appeal as an alternative to China for the reconfiguration of supply chains if it proves permanent. But there are still opportunities for that tariff rate to come down in the weeks ahead.
Barron’s
August 11, 2025
Experts say that ultrapowerful quantum computers could eventually crack the security codes of blockchain, the underlying technology for Bitcoin. The computers “might eventually become so fast that they will undermine the Bitcoin transaction process,” experts at Deloitte have written. Conceivably, hackers could start rewriting the history of trades.
Yahoo, CNBC
August 8, 2025, August 7, 2025
President Donald Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, for a temporary seat on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a move that gives Trump more time to consider a permanent appointee and a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Miran’s nomination is viewed as a strategic, stop-gap measure that keeps Trump’s options open for a permanent governor and chair selection in the coming months.
Reuters, Business Insider
August 6, 2025
Federal Reserve officials are expressing concern about a cooling labor market and a slowing economy, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both advocating for two interest-rate cuts this year. Kashkari says economic growth is slowing, while Daly says she is increasingly uneasy about leaving rates unchanged.