10 Things You Need to Know: August 11, 2026
Key data releases this week include: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), existing homes sales (Tue), CPI (Wed), PPI (Thu), retail sales (Fri), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
August 5, 2026
The U.S. ISM Services PMI inched up to 54.1 in July following a 0.5-point decline to 54.0 in June. On the labor front, the employment index dropped to 47.4. The prices index, above 70 for the fourth time in five months, advanced to an elevated 70.3.
Haver
August 7, 2026
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 23,000 in July with meaningful downward revisions to both May and June. The market consensus looked for an 85,000 increase. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, due mostly to another significant decline in the labor force. Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1% m/m (3.2% y/y). Meanwhile, productivity rose 1.4% in the second quarter while unit labor costs rose 1.3%.
Bloomberg, Reuters
August 4, 2026
European companies are delivering strong earnings, with MSCI Europe profits up 14% and over half of the index beating estimates in Q2, marking the best performance since early 2023. The commodities sector, especially higher oil prices, has been a major contributor, but even the median stock in the Stoxx Europe 600 has reported a 7% rise in EPS. This performance has driven the index to record highs, outperforming the S&P 500 for the second consecutive month.
OCBC Group Research
August 3, 2026
China’s GDP growth averaged 4.7% YoY in the first half of 2026, remaining within the government’s 4.5–5.0% growth target. We believe 2Q26 is likely to mark the cyclical trough. With the increasing focus on service consumption and “Six Networks” infrastructure investment, growth should improve gradually during the second half of the year. We therefore continue to expect China to achieve its official growth target this year with growth 4.6%.
Barron’s
August 10, 2026
After the cost of hedging exchange-rate risks, the 4% on 30-year JGBs compares favorably with 5.2% on 30-year U.S. Treasuries for a Japanese investor. This doesn’t mean Japanese investors are selling Treasuries outright, but that they are becoming less willing to act as marginal buyers, which set prices. A reversal of capital outflows from Japan as interest rates there rise comes at a time when bond markets in the rest of the world need buyers.
Barron’s
August 10, 2026
While the S&P 500 index is up 22% in the past year, valuations have actually come down, with the forward P/E ratio falling from 22.1 times forward earnings to 20 times. Meanwhile, the Q2 earnings season has been strong, with 86% of companies beating earnings estimates, above the average of 78%, and S&P 500 companies growing earnings by a startling 50.4% from one year ago.
Bloomberg
August 7, 2026
Federal Reserve officials are increasingly divided on whether to raise interest rates as high inflation persists for a fifth year. Some, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, argue for immediate rate hikes to combat inflation, while others prefer to wait, hoping inflation will cool on its own. The debate intensified after a surprise decline in July payrolls, raising concerns about the labor market.
Bloomberg, The New York Times
August 9, 2026, August 7, 2026
Wall Street sees Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s yen intervention, bond-sale guidance shift and defense of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as signs the Treasury is trying to contain pressure on long-term yields. However, strategists warn deficits, inflation risk and Fed credibility questions will limit Treasury’s ability to pull borrowing costs lower.
Bloomberg
August 3, 2026
Democratic senators urged the CFTC to restrict prediction-market trading on wildfires, warning that such contracts could create incentives for arson or misuse of sensitive fire-risk information. The letter adds pressure to the agency’s review of guardrails for prediction markets, even as regulated platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket US don’t currently offer wildfire-specific contracts.