10 Things You Need to Know: April 30, 2024
Key data releases this week include: FHFA House Price Index (Tue), consumer confidence (Tue), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Wed), ISM Manufacturing (Wed), FOMC rate decision (Wed), factory orders (Thu), ISM Services (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
April 25, 2024
Real GDP grew 1.6% (SAAR) in Q1’24 in this advance estimate, following a 3.4% gain in Q4’23 and a 4.9% Q3’23 rise. A 2.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Real GDP grew 3.0% on a Q1/Q1 basis after a 3.1% rise in 2023 and a 0.7% gain in 2022. The growth slowdown last quarter stemmed from reduced contributions to growth from the change in business inventories and international trade.
Haver
April 25, 2024
The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors increased 3.4% (0.1% y/y) to 78.2 after rising 1.6% to 75.6 in February. These gains followed a 4.7% January decline. Sales were 38.9% below the peak in August 2020. The index reflects sales contract signings.
Haver
April 26, 2024
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.8% (5.8% y/y) during March after rising an unrevised 0.8% in February. A 0.6% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Personal income rose 0.5% (4.7% y/y) in March after increasing an unrevised 0.3% in February. A 0.5% increase had been expected.
Haver
April 26, 2024
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y) in March, the same as it did in February but down from 0.4% in January. The price index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y), the same as it did in February, but these were below a 0.5% January rise.
Capital Economics
April 29, 2024
The weaker-than-expected EC business and consumer survey for April is a reminder that the euro-zone economy is still weak. Meanwhile, the survey and inflation figures for Germany and Spain confirm that disinflation is continuing but price pressures in services remain high.
Bloomberg
April 29, 2024
Amid concerns about China’s economic slowdown, there is increasing speculation that the government may consider a significant devaluation of the yuan to boost exports and stimulate economic growth. While such a move could potentially enhance competitive advantages in the short term, it risks triggering capital outflows, further currency declines, and destabilizing global markets.
Bloomberg
April 29,
The yen surged back from its weakest level against the dollar in 34 years amid speculation the Japanese government intervened to support its beleaguered currency for the first time since 2022. In holiday-thinned trading in Japan, the yen swung wildly, rallying more than 2% on Monday after earlier dropping as much as 1.2% to 160.17 per dollar.
Barron’s
April 29, 2024
New business formation might be one of the biggest drivers of recent productivity growth and has helped set the U.S. economy up for continued success. Americans filed 17.3 million new business applications from January 2021 to March 2024. In the past three years, monthly applications have nearly doubled relative to pre-pandemic levels going back to 2004.
Bloomberg
April 26, 2024
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, the FOMC’s most dovish member, noted “progress on inflation has stalled” and the Fed will have to “recalibrate” — a rare communication in a pre-FOMC blackout period.