10 Things You Need to Know: April 22, 2025
Key data releases this week include: leading economic indicators (Mon), new home sales (Wed), Beige Book (Wed), durable goods orders (Thu), existing home sales (Thu), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
April 16, 2025
Total retail sales increased 1.4% (4.6% y/y) during March after an unrevised 0.2% February improvement. Expectations had been for a 1.4% March gain in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & food services, rose 0.4% (4.6% y/y) last month after rising 1.3% in February.
Haver
April 16, 2025
Industrial production fell 0.3% m/m (1.3% y/y) in March following a 0.8% gain in February. A 0.2% m/m decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Manufacturing production rose 0.3% (1.0% y/y) in March. Capacity utilization fell to 77.8% in March. The Action Economics Forecast Survey forecasted 77.9%.
Bloomberg
April 17, 2025
The European Central Bank lowered interest rates for the seventh time since last June as trade tensions threaten to derail the region’s economic recovery. The deposit rate was decreased by a quarter point to 2.25%, as predicted by almost all analysts. The ECB dropped the word “restrictive” from its statement in relation to the monetary-policy stance.
Bloomberg
April 16, 2025
China’s gross domestic product grew 5.4% in the first quarter from a year ago, the government said Wednesday, more than a forecast of 5.2%. Both production and consumption indicated unexpected momentum in March, before massive US levies on Chinese goods kicked in this month. The rosy picture will give little comfort to policymakers as economic activities are expected to deteriorate starting from April.
Bloomberg
April 21, 2025
US Vice President JD Vance held trade talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Monday as the South Asian nation looks to strike an early deal with Washington that spares it from President Donald Trump’s additional tariff hikes. The pair discussed a deal to reduce the tariff burden as well as cooperation in defense, critical technologies and energy.
Barron’s
April 21, 2025
On Tuesday, the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average fell to 5748, below the 200-day moving average of 5754. This was the first death cross since March 2022. Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton calls it a “lagging indicator,” and not a reliable device for market timing. Investors with longer horizons should keep in mind that in the past 20 death crosses, the S&P 500 was higher 80% of the time a year later.
Bloomberg
April 20, 2025
President Trump last week — frustrated that the Fed hasn’t moved to lower interest rates, unlike the European Central Bank — posted on social media that Powell’s “termination cannot come fast enough!” “The president and his team will continue to study that,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Friday when asked by a reporter if removing Powell was an option.
DJ
April 18, 2025
The economy could experience a “technical recession,” in which growth contracts slightly but economic activity doesn’t plunge. Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, forecasts that the U.S. economy will follow a seesaw pattern, with a negative first quarter followed by a pickup in the second quarter, and then by another weaker quarter.
WSJ
April 14, 2025
About 190 U.S. companies filed for bankruptcy protection in January through March, more than in any first quarter since 2010. Potentially more worrisome, three of the largest filings were from technology and media companies.