10 Things You Need to Know: April 21, 2026
Key data releases this week include: retail sales (Tue), pending home sales (Tue), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
April 13, 2026
Existing home sales fell 3.6% m/m (-1.0% y/y) to 3.98 million units (SAAR) in March, the lowest level since June 2025. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected March sales of 4.08 million units. Sales remained 39.7% below a peak of 6.60 million in January 2021. The median price of all existing homes (NSA) rose 2.7% (1.4% y/y) to $408,800 in March.
Bloomberg
April 14, 2026
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points to 95.8 in March, below the consensus estimate of 97.9. The reading was below the 52-year average of 98.0, marking the first time sentiment has fallen below the historical average since last April. The uncertainty index rose four points to 92, well above its historical average of 68.
Bloomberg
April 14, 2026
Headline PPI rose 0.5% in March, below consensus expectations. Core PPI prices slowed to a 0.1% rate (vs. a downwardly revised 0.3%), also below expectations. Year-over-year headline inflation increased to 4.0% (vs. 3.4% in February), while core remained at 3.8% after the February figure was revised down.
Bloomberg
April 15, 2026
“The conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture,” the Fed’s Beige Book reported. Across the country, many companies reported that while layoffs have remained minimal, they are mostly hiring only to replace staff who have left, not to expand.
Haver
April 15, 2026
Import prices rose a less-than-expected 0.8% m/m (2.1% y/y) in March notwithstanding a 9.4% monthly jump in imported petroleum and petroleum products prices. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 2.4% month over month increase in March. Export prices rose more than did import prices but also less than expected. They were up 1.6% m/m (5.6% y/y).
Barron’s
April 20, 2026
Deutsche Bank’s economists see the U.S. economy probably weathering a “substantial shock relatively well.” They tweaked their forecast for slightly weaker real growth in GDP of 2.3%, measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Deutsche Bank economists see the oil impact being offset by an array of positives: supportive financial conditions; fiscal policy, featuring larger tax refunds; “robust” productivity; and continued strong investments in artificial intelligence.
Barron’s
April 20, 2026
The CME FedWatch tool on Friday showed the federal-funds target range remaining stuck at 3.50% to 3.75% all the way through April 2027.
FT
April 20, 2026
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has expressed concern about the rapid rise of US government debt, which has reached $39 trillion, or 125% of GDP. Powell warns that the debt’s growth, outpacing the economy, is unsustainable and could lead to a crisis where the safety of US assets is questioned.
Bloomberg
April 14, 2026
President Trump could restore tariffs to previous levels by July following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down many of his levies, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says. Section 301 studies are underway, and the temporary 10% tariff imposed after the ruling is set to expire July 24.