10 Things You Need to Know: April 2, 2025
Key data releases this week include: JOLTS Jobs Openings (Tue), ISM Manufacturing (Tue), factory orders (Wed), trade balance (Thu), ISM Services (Thu), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
March 25, 2025
U.S. house prices rose 0.2% m/m in January after rises of 0.5% in December and 0.4% in November, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. The year-on-year rate of increase registered at 4.8% in January and December, the highest since July 2024.
Haver
March 27, 2025
Real GDP growth was revised to 2.4% last quarter (SAAR) from 2.3% reported last month. It followed a 3.1% gain in the third quarter and 3.0% growth in Q2. A 2.3% gain was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Business inventories shaved 0.84 percentage point from growth. Net exports added 0.26 percentage point.
Haver
March 28, 2025
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4% (5.3% y/y) in February after a 0.3% decline in January. A 0.6% increase was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Personal income rose 0.8% (4.6% y/y) after gaining 0.7% in January, revised from 0.9%. A 0.4% gain was expected.
Haver
March 28, 2025
The PCE price index rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y) during February for the third straight month. A rise of 0.3% was expected by economists. The price index excluding food & energy strengthened 0.4% last month after increases of 0.3% (2.8% y/y) in January. Expectations were for a rise of 0.3%.
Capital Economics
March 26, 2025
Increased US tariffs will exacerbate a broader slowdown in exports. China’s economy will also face continued drags from the property downturn and wider deflationary dynamics. A sizeable fiscal loosening will provide a partial offset but won’t prevent growth from slowing. Unless the renminbi weakens significantly in response, our below-consensus forecasts for GDP growth over the next couple of years could end up being too optimistic.
Barron’s
March 31, 2025
Tariff policy has hit consumer sentiment hard—the Conference Board’s measure fell for a fourth consecutive month—and threatens to keep shoppers at home. Companies, too, are showing signs of concern by limiting travel, slowing hiring, and taking other steps to rein in spending. Those concerns have already started showing up in earnings guidance from U.S. corporations.
Barron’s
March 31, 2025
The aggregate earnings from the S&P 500 are expected to total $268.77, down from $272.15 at the end of last year but still up more than 10% from 2024’s $243.72. At a recent 5720, the S&P 500 index is likely pricing in something close to $259, but even that is likely too high, according to Larry McDonald of the Bear Traps Report, who puts the number closer to $230. “Estimates are still too high based on the rate of change and the way chief financial officers have acted,” he says.
Financial Times
March 26, 2025
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee has indicated that rising inflation expectations in the US bond market would be a major concern, potentially hindering plans to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, there might be only one interest-rate cut this year, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, citing the potential impact of tariffs.
Oxford Economics
March 28, 2025
Our current baseline calls for consumer spending growth to slow to 2% this year, and core inflation to breach back above 3% by mid-year. We think that combination will keep the Fed on extended pause, especially with inflation expectations showing increasing signs of becoming unanchored.