10 Things You Need to Know: April 2, 2024
Key data releases this week include: ISM Manufacturing (Mon), JOLTS Jobs Openings (Tue), factory orders (Tue), ISM Services (Wed), consumer credit (Fri), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Bloomberg
April 1, 2024
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge rose 2.5 points to 50.3 last month, according to data released Monday. While barely above the level of 50 that separates expansion and contraction, it halted 16 straight months of shrinking activity. The March index exceeded all estimates in a survey of economists.
Haver
March 26, 2024
U.S. house prices slipped 0.1% m/m in January after unrevised rises of 0.1% in December and 0.4% in November, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. The January reading was the first m/m decline since August 2022. The year-on-year rate of increase, while remaining near the historical average, eased to 6.3% in January, the lowest since September.
Bloomberg
March 28, 2024
Gross domestic product rose at an upwardly revised 3.4% annualized pace in the fourth quarter on the back of stronger household demand and business investment, according to the third estimate of the figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis out Thursday. The government’s other main gauge of economic activity — gross domestic income — rose 4.8%, the most in two years.
Haver
March 29, 2024
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y) in February after increasing 0.4% in January, revised from 0.3%. These increases were up from minimal change during the prior three months. The index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.5% January increase, revised from 0.4%.
Bloomberg
April 1, 2024
BCA Research believes that slowed growth in Germany may pull down the eurozone or have a contagion effect on other economies, such as France or Italy. The global growth momentum of the last 12 months appears to have largely bypassed Europe. The region has been grappling with the aftermath of high energy prices, high interest rates to control inflation, and weak consumer confidence.
Barron’s
April 1, 2024
The S&P 500 climbed 10.2% in the first quarter, and while some think the rally has gotten ahead of itself, there are strong arguments in favor of it persisting. The S&P 500 health care and consumer staples indexes have risen alongside the tech index, and excitement around AI appears to be more than hype. Historically, the S&P 500 has gone on to climb further after making similar Q1 gains, giving the index a 94% chance of more gains.
Bloomberg
March 29, 2024
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeated that the US central bank isn’t in any rush to cut interest rates as policymakers await more evidence that inflation is contained. “The fact that the US economy is growing at such a solid pace, the fact that the labor market is still very, very strong, gives us the chance to just be a little more confident about inflation coming down before we take the important step of cutting rates,” Powell said Friday at an event at the San Francisco Fed.
Capital Economics
March 25, 2024
Faltering consumer spending reinforces our view that GDP growth will slow this year, although that slowdown is likely to be modest. After a disappointing couple of months for inflation, easing demand growth should help to drive a more marked decline later this year. We still see a good chance that the Fed will begin cutting rates in June and that rates will fall slightly more quickly than markets are pricing in.
Financial Times
April 1, 2024
A $2 trillion “wall” of property debt is due over the next three years. Banks will be under pressure to cut their exposure to commercial real estate or risk losses as debt maturing between now and 2026 would have to be refinanced at higher interest rates. This year alone will see around $929 billion of commercial real estate debt refinanced.