10 Things You Need to Know: April 14, 2026
Key data releases this week include: existing home sales (Mon), NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tue), PPI (Tue), NAHB Housing Market Index (Wed), Beige Book (Wed), Import Price Index (Wed), and industrial production (Thu).
Haver
April 6, 2026
The U.S. ISM Services PMI decreased to 54.0 in March following a 2.3-point rise to 56.1 in February. The 12-month average was 52.3, pointing to continued growth in the U.S. services sector. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 54.9 for March. On the inflation front, the prices paid index jumped to 70.7 in March from 63.0 in February.
Bloomberg Economics
April 8, 2026
The March FOMC meeting minutes read hawkish: Even as the committee was still assessing the implications of the Iran war, the discussion pointed to later rate cuts and greater concern that inflation would persist. Participants emphasized the importance of being “nimble” and taking a “balanced approach,” given two-sided risks to the inflation and employment goals. All in all, the minutes reinforce the case for a near-term hold.
Bloomberg
April 9, 2026
Monthly headline PCE inflation rose to 0.38% in February, from 0.30% in January. The year-on-year pace was unchanged at 2.8%. The core PCE deflator ticked down by 0.37% after rising an upwardly revised 0.39% in January. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE inflation was 3.0%.
Bloomberg
April 9, 2026
The final estimate of GDP in Q4 was revised down to a 0.5% growth rate, from 0.7% previously. Real domestic income rose 2.6%. Headline GDP understated the economy’s underlying growth pace in 4Q, as shutdown distortions dragged down output. However, income growth and core demand remained relatively solid, pointing to strong momentum heading into 2026.
Bloomberg Economics
April 13, 2026
In our baseline, growth in the euro-area slows to 0.7% this year, while inflation stays well above the 2% target level, reaching 3% and averaging 2.9%. The initial inflation spike should prove temporary, but higher natural gas prices will feed through more gradually, keeping price pressures elevated for longer. With policymakers wary of a repeat of the 2022 surge, the European Central Bank is likely to raise rates in June, with risks tilted toward a second move in September.
The Wall Street Journal
April 9, 2026
Portfolio managers say emerging markets still offer upside despite Iran war volatility, pointing to improving fundamentals, falling inflation and a roughly 40% valuation discount to developed markets. Commodity exporters like Brazil and Colombia could benefit from higher oil prices, while rate-cut cycles and high real yields across parts of Latin America, Turkey and frontier markets are seen as key tailwinds.
Bloomberg
April 7, 2026
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said his outlook for underlying price pressures in the US was largely unchanged despite his expectation that higher energy costs stemming from the war in Iran will boost overall inflation. Several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have said interest rates are well positioned to balance the mounting risks for the time being.
Capital Economics
April 8, 2026
If the two-week ceasefire agreed between the US, Israel and Iran holds – which would be more or less in line with our baseline scenario assumptions – then it still seems likely that the Fed’s next move will be a cut.
Financial Times
April 9, 2026
The US-Iran war may mark a turning point for the global monetary system, with gold reserves now exceeding valuation-adjusted dollar holdings among central banks for the first time in decades. Rising geopolitical risk, dollar “weaponization,” and energy-driven strains are weakening demand for dollar assets, signaling a gradual but persistent erosion of US currency dominance.