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February 12 , 2018
Statistic of the Week: 
With the primaries in full swing, so too is campaign spending. Before he dropped out, Jeb Bush was spending about $368 for every vote he received, while Ted Cruz spent $193 and Marco Rubio spent $153. Donald Trump spent the least ($64) while Ben Carson spent the most ($795) in the Republican field.
Global Perspective: 
The notion that the United Kingdom could leave the European Union is one that is likely to influence markets in the months ahead. With a public referendum on the topic slated for June 23rd, the possible “Brexit” has already caused the pound to drop considerably. Current poles show 30% favoring leaving the union, 30% for staying, and 40% undecided.
Market Moving Events: 
Monday: Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Tuesday: Motor Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending Wednesday: Petroleum Status Report, Beige Book, ADP Employment Report Thursday: Jobless Claims, Factory Orders Friday: Employment Situation
Commentary: 
Equity markets advanced for their second week in a row, as the S&P 500 rose 1.63% and the DJIA increased 1.56%.1 The two major US indices are still significantly in the red for 2016, each down around 4% year to date.2 The rise in equities did not translate into a selloff in fixed income. Again we saw domestic fixed income markets virtually unchanged as stocks rallied. The 10-year Treasury closed the week trading at a yield of 1.76%.3 The rise in equity prices mirrored a rally in oil prices. Last week, West Texas Intermediate contracts increased 10.6%, to finish the week trading at $32.75 a barrel.4 The gains are attributed to continuing discussions between the Russians and Iranians about curbing output.5 With global investors keyed in on the price changes of crude, any stabilization in the price will be viewed as a positive. At this point, a relief from the wild swings in the price would likely benefit the broader markets. The week ahead is full of economic releases dominated by the manufacturing sector. While last quarter’s GDP was revised higher (chart right),6 it will be difficult for domestic growth to remain positive if manufacturing (under siege from a depression in the energy sector and slow international demand resulting from a Chinese slowdown) is under pressure. While the consumer gets most of the attention in the US economy, the manufacturing figures may reveal the damage these issues are causing on a broader scale. -Dan McElwee, CFP®
Chart of the Week: 
About Ventura Wealth Management: 
Ventura Wealth Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Unparalleled service, objective advice, and comprehensive planning act as the central pillars of our client experience. We are dedicated to building long-term client relationships through diligent management, custom portfolios, client education, and ongoing financial review
Sources: 

Statistic of the Week:

The Washington Post

 

Global Perspective:

The Week, The Economist

 

Market Moving Data:

Bloomberg.com

 

Chart of the Week:

Haver Analytics / Bureau Economic Analysis

Commentary:

1.Bloomberg
2.Bloomberg
3.Bloomberg
4.Bloomberg
5.Goldman Sachs Asset Management
6.Bureau of Economic Analysis
 
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